Arthur Hayes is doubling down on Ethereum and two high-beta DeFi tokens, setting year-end targets that would require ETH, Ethena and Ether.fi to post gains of more than 200% from current levels.
In his latest “Atención” newsletter, the BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom CIO said his firm’s structural Bitcoin long remains unchanged, while its more speculative end-of-2026 bets are Ether at $10,000, Ethena at $0.50 and Ether.fi at $2.
Hayes’ targets are not supported by a conventional valuation model. Instead, they sit at the end of a macro thesis centered on dollar liquidity, Federal Reserve balance-sheet expansion and a sharp move lower in the euro-yen exchange rate.
ETH Would Need to More Than Quadruple
Ethereum was trading around $2,400 Thursday after recovering from an intraday low near $2,357, leaving Hayes’ $10,000 target roughly 300% above current levels.
The call is aggressive, although it is not completely out of line with some of the bullish forecasts already circulating for 2026. Coinpaper previously examined Ethereum forecasts ranging from $7,000 to $20,000 as institutional adoption, stablecoins and public-blockchain settlement increasingly shape the ETH investment case.
Hayes has also repeatedly argued that Ethereum could become a core institutional settlement layer, while predicting that many competing Layer-1 networks will eventually lose relevance. Coinpaper covered that broader Ethereum and Solana thesis last year.
ENA and ETHFI Offer Even Higher-Beta Bets
Hayes’ DeFi targets are similarly aggressive.
ENA was trading near $0.15 Thursday, meaning a move to $0.50 would represent roughly 230% upside. CoinGecko data showed the token down around 6% over 24 hours, creating a notable contrast between Hayes’ bullish call and immediate market performance.
Hayes has backed Ethena before. In January, Coinpaper reported that he expected ENA to reach $1 and had accumulated exposure to the token alongside other DeFi assets. His earlier ENA call was even more bullish than the latest $0.50 target.
ETHFI was trading around $0.56, putting Hayes’ $2 forecast about 250% above recent levels. Unlike ENA, ETHFI was gaining roughly 4% Thursday as traders circulated his new target.
Hayes Is Really Betting on Liquidity
The price targets are ultimately secondary to Hayes’ macro argument.
His current “North Star” is EUR/JPY, which he expects to fall from around 185 to 140 or below by June 2027. Hayes argues that stress in European banking and shifts in Japanese capital flows could eventually force greater Federal Reserve support for Treasury funding markets, expanding dollar liquidity.
Crypto, in Hayes’ framework, becomes one of the fastest beneficiaries when that liquidity expands.
That makes his $10,000 Ethereum call less a standalone prediction than a leveraged bet on a broader monetary regime. If the liquidity surge fails to materialize, ETH, ENA and ETHFI would still have an enormous distance to cover before reaching his targets.