BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes told The Rollup podcast Tuesday that his fund uses trading to finance larger Bitcoin purchases rather than treating trading as an end goal. Hayes said he wants his analyst to find tokens down 75% to 80% from local highs. Hayes called that approach the fastest path to a fivefold return in just a few months without risking much capital.
Hayes avoids new token launches entirely, citing high fully diluted valuations, low float and heavy pre-sale investor unlocks as sources of excessive hidden risk. Hayes prefers projects that have survived since the 2020 DeFi summer era. Hayes argues that those projects' valuations already reflect years of real usage rather than hype.
Hayes said a recent Citrini Research report on tokenization validates a thesis Hayes has held for years. Hayes's thesis is that Wall Street is finally building infrastructure to move real-world assets onto blockchains. Hayes argued that the real opportunity is not in tokenizing stocks. Hayes sees the opportunity in protocols that AI agents will use to manage money independently. Hayes said that narrative alone is compelling enough to drive prices higher, even without supporting near-term revenue.
Hayes divides his portfolio into two categories, an approach Hayes calls a barbell strategy. The hard-money, scarce-asset category includes Bitcoin, Ethereum and Zcash. The on-chain business category includes protocols with real cash flow and buyback programs that stand to benefit from growing regulatory acceptance in the US.
Hayes dismissed recent quantum computing fears around Bitcoin's encryption as a known, manageable risk rather than a reason to sell. Hayes said proper wallet hygiene, avoiding address reuse and using updated signature types protect against the realistic threat.
Hayes said rising global bond yields matter less for the US and more for countries such as France. Hayes sees a potential banking crisis developing in France as foreign lenders reduce exposure to France's debt. France's banks handle roughly 20% of US repo market financing. The Federal Reserve will likely need to provide more liquidity if that funding dries up.
Hayes said every Federal Reserve rate increase of 25 basis points actually adds about $25 billion in extra liquidity through higher interest payments on reserves and Treasury bills. Hayes said that mechanism explains why Bitcoin rallied after the Federal Reserve's last rate increase instead of falling.
Arthur Hayes Shares Bitcoin Accumulation Strategy and Market Views
BenzingaShare
Summary
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, shared Bitcoin news on his fund’s strategy of flipping altcoins to accumulate more Bitcoin, focusing on tokens down 75% to 80% from local highs. He avoids new token launches and prefers 2020 DeFi-era projects. Hayes also outlined his barbell portfolio approach and dismissed quantum computing as a threat to Bitcoin. His Bitcoin market news highlights a clear focus on value and risk management in the current market.
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