ChainThink reports that on September 3, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in his latest article that his current macro trading "north star" is the EUR/JPY pair, which he expects to decline from around 185 to 140 or lower by June next year.
He believes that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is pushing the dollar weaker against the yen to encourage capital flows back to Japan and Asia, while putting pressure on European assets.
Hayes noted that France’s high fiscal deficit, rising debt, and reliance on foreign capital make it the most vulnerable link in the eurozone, with French banks and government bond markets potentially facing sustained capital outflows.
Japanese companies are being urged to accelerate the repatriation of overseas funds, which could strengthen the yen and lead Asian investors to reduce their holdings of European assets.
If French banks withdraw from part of the repurchase market, it could raise U.S. Treasury financing costs and force hedge funds to deleverage, potentially compelling the New York Fed to expand its repurchase market operations, accelerating the pace of the Fed’s balance sheet expansion to nearly $10 billion per month.
Hayes believes that this series of changes will create a liquidity chain characterized by "first tightening, then easing," and the crypto market will be one of the fastest beneficiaries of liquidity expansion.
He maintains his price targets for the end of 2026: $10,000 for Ethereum (ETH), $0.50 for Ethena (ENA), and $2 for ETHFI, and recommends monitoring EUR/JPY put options while maintaining a structural long position in Bitcoin.