Foreign media: Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, believes Bitcoin could rise to $126,000 by the end of 2026. His assessment is not primarily based on crypto industry narratives, but rather on the expectation of rising U.S. debt burdens, pressure on the bond market, and the potential for major central banks to release additional liquidity again.
Debt pressure is seen as a primary catalyst.
Hayes stated in the interview that the U.S. government’s approximately $40 trillion in debt and rising interest costs are increasing pressure on fiscal policy and the bond market. If high interest rates persist for too long, U.S. Treasury yields may continue to rise, forcing policymakers to implement additional interventions.
He noted that the recent increase in U.S. Treasury repurchase operations has been interpreted by the market as a signal that authorities do not wish to see yields rise too quickly. If more U.S. dollars enter the market, risk assets typically benefit, and Bitcoin could also be one of the destinations for capital flows.
FIMA tool becomes a focus of attention
Hayes also mentioned the Fed’s FIMA repo facility, which allows foreign official institutions holding U.S. Treasuries to exchange them for dollar liquidity using the Treasuries as collateral.
According to him, countries like Japan, which hold large amounts of U.S. Treasuries, may need to repatriate capital domestically in the future if they face domestic funding pressures. If these institutions directly sell large quantities of U.S. Treasuries, it could further push up yields and intensify global market volatility.
He believes that if the Federal Reserve expands the use of the FIMA facility, foreign official institutions could obtain U.S. dollars without having to sell Treasuries en masse. This could introduce a new source of dollar liquidity to global markets, which is bullish for Bitcoin.
Also mentioned is the $35,000 downside scenario.
Hayes also presented a more pessimistic short-term scenario, stating that if Bitcoin suddenly drops to $35,000 due to passive selling or large-scale liquidations, it does not necessarily signal the start of a new long-term bear market.
The article describes this situation as similar to the "cleansing moment" in March 2020. If a sharp market decline is followed by policy easing and liquidity replenishment, the sudden price drop could instead serve as a turning point before a new upward rally.
Target price points to $126,000
Under a more optimistic scenario, Hayes believes that if liquidity expansion occurs while Bitcoin is already in an uptrend, the rally could be further amplified. One reason is that many investors still have insufficient exposure to BTC; once the price breaks through key levels, momentum-driven buying could accelerate.
Based on this assessment, he has set a more realistic target price of $126,000 for 2026, above previous all-time highs. Looking further ahead, if global liquidity continues to expand, he believes Bitcoin could potentially reach $500,000.
However, in his view, what truly warrants caution is not merely a crypto market correction, but external shocks such as war or large-scale cyberattacks. If such events disrupt critical infrastructure, they could have a more direct impact on global markets.