BlockBeats news, on August 5, Arthur Hayes published his latest article, "Situationship," suggesting that while the AI bubble may eventually burst, its aftermath could drive global liquidity expansion and serve as a catalyst for Bitcoin's next bull market.
Hayes believes that the key to determining whether AI is a bubble lies in how investors define AI infrastructure. He notes that the market generally treats hundreds of billions of dollars in AI capital expenditures as "technology investment," assigning high-growth valuations, but its true nature is more akin to "real estate investment."
He stated that current AI infrastructure development is essentially about building underlying assets such as data centers and power facilities that support computing power, rather than directly investing in tech companies like Apple. “Financial institutions, private credit funds, and governments may mistakenly believe that investing in AI data centers is equivalent to investing in tech giants, when in reality, it is more akin to investing in highly leveraged infrastructure projects.”
Hayes believes the core reason for the AI bubble bursting is not the failure of corporate profits to materialize, but rather excessive credit expansion. He argues that, with support from the U.S. and Chinese governments, financial intermediaries may have overbuilt data centers, power infrastructure, and related supply chains, ultimately creating credit cycle risks similar to those of the 2008 financial crisis, rather than the profit valuation crisis seen in the 2000 dot-com bubble.
However, Hayes believes that the long-term value of AI remains enormous. He notes that the computing resources operating within data centers will drive the development of "silicon-based life," having a profound impact on human civilization akin to that of the railway era.
Regarding market impact, Hayes expects that after the AI bubble bursts, governments and central banks may adopt more aggressive monetary easing measures—such as "massive money printing"—to repair the financial system, propel risk assets into a new upward cycle, and ultimately benefit Bitcoin.
Hayes said that the key variable in the current AI cycle is whether capital markets have mispriced AI infrastructure, and this judgment will determine the future direction of the market.