Arthur Hayes says a falling EUR/JPY could unlock a fresh wave of crypto liquidity. He argues the currency move signals more dollar printing at the Federal Reserve.
The Maelstrom chief investment officer forecasts EUR/JPY falling from about 185 to below 140 by June 2027. He links the move to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s currency strategy.
Why EUR/JPY Is Hayes’ Crypto Liquidity Gauge
In July, the New York Fed sold euros to help fund Japan’s yen rescue. It used the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) rather than dollars.
Hayes argues that reallocation previews a bigger pattern. Allies get dollar liquidity without an official expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet.
Senator Elizabeth Warren has already asked Bessent to justify the ESF’s use. He has not disclosed the full amount spent.
Hayes also points to the Fed’s growing use of repo market purchases to backstop Treasury demand. Similar repo dynamics underpin a separate BeInCrypto analysis tying Bessent’s buyback program to a $224,000 Bitcoin math.
Maelstrom, his family office, holds Bitcoin (BTC) as a structural long regardless of short-term swings.
A Political Trigger in France
Hayes’ EUR/JPY call rests partly on France. He argues, in his latest newsletter, the country’s widening bond yields and fragile banks could force the Banque de France into unofficial stimulus. That would come ahead of France’s 2027 presidential election.
That scenario is Hayes’ own framework, not a confirmed policy shift. No French or European Central Bank official has signaled such a move.
He also cites a widening gap between French and German bond yields. He says it is near its widest level since the 2011 euro crisis.
Still, Hayes says any strain on French lenders could reduce their role in short-term funding markets. He argues that gap would pull the Fed deeper into repo purchases to keep Treasury markets functioning.
He calls a weaker EUR/JPY the fastest early warning that liquidity is accelerating.
Whether the euro cooperates on Hayes’ timeline remains unverified and speculative. If EUR/JPY keeps falling through next year’s French elections, that alone could be the tell.
Crypto traders may end up watching a currency pair, not ETF flows, for their next liquidity cue.