Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin’s Sideways Movement Brings Strategy Options into Focus

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Arthur Hayes highlighted Bitcoin’s sideways movement as a critical test for the Strategy’s options strategy, noting that price consolidation near $80,000 could challenge its Bitcoin-heavy approach. The Strategy holds 840,447 BTC and pays $1.5 billion in annual dividends to STRK and STRC. With an enterprise value to mNAV ratio of 1.01x and a diluted mNAV of 0.74x, Hayes suggested that Saylor might issue shares, sell BTC, or reduce preferred dividends. Value investing in crypto faces a pivotal moment as the Strategy’s balance sheet comes under increased scrutiny.

According to Huo Xing Cai Jing, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, stated that Bitcoin has traded sideways near $80,000 for most of this week, potentially undermining the operational foundation of Strategy’s Bitcoin strategy. Strategy currently holds 840,447 Bitcoin and pays approximately $1.5 billion annually in dividends to STRK and STRC. The enterprise value mNAV of Strategy, a digital asset treasury company, is approximately 1.01x, while its underlying mNAV and diluted mNAV were around 0.73x and 0.74x, respectively, as of August 27—approaching the book value of its Bitcoin holdings. Arthur Hayes noted that Michael Saylor could choose to issue new shares, directly sell Bitcoin, or reduce preferred dividend payments. The dividend yield for STRK is 8%, while that for STRC ranges between 10% and 11.5%.

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