According to Woofun AI, Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, released a new research report asserting that Tesla's (TSLA.US) stock price could rise nearly 1,100% by 2031 and predicting that the company will merge with SpaceX (SPCX.US) within five years.
The report released on Monday detailed the valuation logic, setting a base price target of $4,400 per share, a bearish scenario at $3,300 per share, and a bullish scenario as high as $5,000 per share. Given that Tesla's (TSLA.US) stock price during overnight trading on Monday was $367.29, the base scenario implies approximately 1,096% upside, the bullish scenario suggests nearly 1,261% upside, and even the bearish scenario offers around 800% upside.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the autonomous taxi business is expected to account for approximately 80% of Tesla's (TSLA.US) enterprise value, generating $753 billion in revenue and driving the company's overall valuation to $16.4 trillion, with the autonomous taxi segment contributing $13.31 trillion.
Meanwhile, Optimus’ robotics-as-a-service business is expected to generate $215 billion in revenue. In terms of autonomous driving progress, Tesla (TSLA.US) has accumulated 1 million miles of autonomous driving in just about seven months—four times faster than Alphabet’s (GOOGL.US) Waymo—and its Cybercab has 40% lower per-mile operating costs than Waymo under comparable usage rates. Under the base case scenario, Tesla (TSLA.US) is projected to sell 10.2 million vehicles by 2031, including 8.1 million autonomous taxis.
In terms of computing power and investment in chip manufacturing, the total market size for humanoid robots is projected at $26 trillion, with Tesla (TSLA.US) expected to deploy up to 1 million units externally by 2031. Ark Invest notes that Optimus can achieve human-level operational capability with approximately 4,000 megawatts, or 4 gigawatts, of computing power. Regarding the Terafab chip manufacturing facility, SpaceX (SPCX.US) may assume a larger share of capital expenditures, while Tesla (TSLA.US) will focus on establishing an initial R&D team, with estimated costs of $3 billion; by 2031, its spending in artificial intelligence is projected to rise to nearly $225 billion.
Although the model evaluates Tesla (TSLA.US) as an independent entity, a merger between SpaceX (SPCX.US) and Tesla (TSLA.US) is considered highly likely within the next five years. The cash flow generated by Tesla (TSLA.US) will support SpaceX (SPCX.US) in building orbital data centers, while SpaceX’s (SPCX.US) cutting-edge AI models will aid in the promotion of Optimus. Combined, SpaceX (SPCX.US) and Tesla (TSLA.US) are projected to generate $3.8 trillion in revenue and $2.7 trillion in EBITDA by 2031, with SpaceX (SPCX.US) contributing 62% of revenue and 69% of EBITDA.
However, this grand narrative still faces significant risks. The slowed adoption of autonomous taxis represents the primary uncertainty for the model. Additionally, Musk’s sudden departure, natural disasters, or pandemic outbreaks could all serve as major adverse factors disrupting these projections.