ARK Invest Analyzes SpaceX's $1.75T IPO Valuation and Business Breakdown

Author: ARK Invest

Compile: DeepCha TechFlow

DeepChaohao Summary: On April 1, SpaceX confidentially submitted its IPO application to the SEC, targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion and raising up to $75 billion, with a potential listing on Nasdaq by June 2026. This would be the largest IPO in capital market history.

As one of SpaceX’s largest venture capital investors, ARK Invest has released this comprehensive investment guide, addressing investors’ most pressing questions—from valuation logic and business breakdowns to fund positioning strategies.

Body:

On April 1, 2026, SpaceX submitted a confidential draft registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), taking its first step toward going public. This will be the largest initial public offering (IPO) in capital markets history. The company aims for a valuation of $1.75 trillion, with potential fundraising of up to $75 billion, and could list on Nasdaq as early as June 2026.

For investors in the ARK Venture Fund, this news was not surprising. SpaceX has long been the fund’s largest holding, accounting for 17.02% of the fund’s net assets as of March 31, 2026. ARK has been building and refining its investment thesis since SpaceX was an early venture investment, and the flood of questions now arriving in investors’ inboxes is something ARK has already anticipated.

This guide answers the most important of those questions.

SpaceX's confidential submission allows the company to submit its financial data to the SEC for review before publicly disclosing it. Under SEC rules, the public version of the S-1 prospectus must be filed at least 15 days before the company begins marketing its shares to investors. This prospectus will be the first opportunity for the public to see a complete picture of SpaceX’s finances, including revenue data, profit margin structure, accounting treatment for the March 2026 merger with xAI, disclosures regarding defense contracts, and the governance framework determining how much control Elon Musk will retain after the listing.

This IPO, internally codenamed "Project Apex," is being led by a mega-underwriting syndicate of at least 21 banks. Its listing on Nasdaq in June 2026 will make SpaceX the first in what Bloomberg calls the "super IPO trifecta"—preceding OpenAI and Anthropic—and will shatter Saudi Aramco’s 2019 record of $29 billion in IPO proceeds by nearly threefold.

ARK's research aims to answer this question. The most rigorous answer is: this valuation reflects a set of specific assumptions about the future, not the current reality.

At a valuation of $1.75 trillion compared to an estimated 2025 revenue of approximately $18.5 billion, SpaceX’s price-to-sales ratio at its IPO price is around 95x. No company of comparable scale in public markets has ever traded at this multiple. This valuation reflects investors’ belief in SpaceX’s future trajectory, which requires examining each of its business segments individually.

Starlink is a financial engine. As of early 2026, SpaceX’s satellite internet service has surpassed 10 million active users worldwide, with projected revenue exceeding $20 billion in 2026. ARK’s research long identified Starlink as the fastest-growing telecommunications network in terms of global users and revenue—a judgment that has proven even conservative. According to ARK’s analysis, the scalable annual revenue opportunity in the satellite connectivity market alone could approach $160 billion, with Starlink structurally capturing a disproportionately large share.

Launch services remain foundational. In 2025, SpaceX completed 165 orbital launches, deploying approximately 85% of the world’s spacecraft. ARK’s research shows that since 2008, the company has reduced launch costs by about 95%—from roughly $15,600 per kilogram to less than $1,000 per kilogram on Falcon 9. According to ARK’s analysis, a fully reusable Starship aims to achieve under $100 per kilogram, representing another order-of-magnitude cost reduction and unlocking market opportunities that currently do not exist.

The merger and orbital computing represent the most forward-looking dimension of valuation. The merger in February 2026 will vertically integrate launch, communications, and AI model infrastructure under a single entity. ARK’s research suggests that, with launch costs below $100 per kilogram, the computational cost of orbital data centers could be approximately 25% lower than ground-based alternatives, avoiding grid interconnection delays, regulatory friction, and power scarcity. Musk has stated that the company’s goal is to launch 100 gigawatts of AI compute annually. This argument is still in its early stages, but it is precisely this rationale that grants the merged entity a strategic premium unattainable by any sum-of-the-parts model.

ARK's research concludes that the $1.75 trillion IPO valuation is grounded in credible growth trajectories across SpaceX’s core business segments, whose structural advantages are enduring. Starlink’s user growth continues to exceed expectations. The decline in launch costs follows a predictable path consistent with Wright’s Law. The xAI merger adds a strategic dimension that no comparable public company has attempted to replicate. The public S-1 filing will provide financial transparency, enabling investors to rigorously test these assumptions—ARK believes the fundamentals will withstand such scrutiny.

ARK’s investment framework is based on a simple premise: bold technological visions are worth serious consideration if supported by demonstrable cost curve declines and accelerating adoption—even when market consensus is skeptical.

By this standard, SpaceX’s track record commands respect. Musk’s goal of fully reusable rockets was once considered unrealistic by the traditional aerospace industry—and SpaceX achieved it. His vision of building a global satellite internet network to serve billions of people with inadequate connectivity was deemed financially unfeasible—and Starlink proved otherwise. The company has deployed over 10,000 Starlink satellites in low Earth orbit, serves more than 10 million users, and achieved cash flow breakeven in 2023.

More ambitious goals—such as lunar factories and a network of one million orbital data centers—are still far from proof of concept. However, ARK’s research does not require every goal to be realized to support its investment thesis. The existing business segments, if they continue on their current trajectory, are sufficient to underpin an attractive investment case. The option value embedded in these more ambitious goals represents upside potential not yet reflected in ARK’s current valuation model—a model that is currently being updated.

In ARK’s view, Musk’s goals are radical by any historical standard, and SpaceX has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to compress the timelines expected by skeptics. This is not a guarantee, but ARK believes this track record itself is a meaningful data point.

This may be the most important question for investors evaluating ARK Venture Fund, and the answer has several layers.

The window for value creation has shifted earlier. Private companies are going public at older ages, with the median age of U.S. companies at their IPO in 2025 reaching 12 years, compared to just 5 years in 1999. Today’s most prominent companies generate substantial value while still private. Investors who wait until public listing to participate may have already missed the most significant growth phase.

The IPO price does not equal the purchase price for most investors. When a company of SpaceX’s scale goes public, the initial offering is primarily allocated to institutional investors. Retail investors who cannot directly participate in the IPO purchase shares on the open market at the price determined by supply and demand on the first day—which is often significantly higher than the IPO price. Historical experience shows that highly anticipated IPOs with high valuations often experience significant volatility after listing before stabilizing at a long-term price level.

Investors in the ARK Venture Fund have received venture capital–level access. The ARK Venture Fund holds SpaceX through direct equity ownership—without intermediaries, special purpose vehicles (SPVs), or structured products that add fee layers and valuation premiums. Investors in the ARK Venture Fund have been exposed to SpaceX’s valuation journey, from $350 billion in 2024, to $800 billion in 2025, to $1.25 trillion following its merger, and now to its current $1.75 trillion IPO target. This entire value creation trajectory occurred in the primary market, precisely as the ARK Venture Fund was designed to achieve.

ARK anticipated this scenario and its impact on investors when designing the venture capital fund.

The ARK Venture Fund is an evergreen crossover fund designed to hold positions throughout a company’s full lifecycle, from early and late private stages through to its IPO and beyond. SpaceX’s IPO is not an issue the fund needs to “manage”—the investment vehicle itself was designed for this.

After SpaceX completes its IPO, the fund's holdings may be subject to standard lock-up restrictions, during which ARK's SpaceX shares cannot be sold. During the lock-up period, new capital injected into the ARK Venture Fund will be deployed into other private companies, accelerating the rebalancing toward the fund’s target of approximately 80% private exposure.

After the lock-up period ends, the fund will have full flexibility to manage its SpaceX position—reducing exposure when appropriate and reallocating capital to next-generation private innovative companies across ARK’s five core technology platforms: artificial intelligence, robotics, energy storage, multi-omics, and blockchain technology.

The performance of any ARK Venture Fund holding—whether public or private—is directly reflected in the fund’s net asset value (NAV). The valuation growth of SpaceX during its private stage has been实时 reflected in the fund’s NAV. Due to the ARK Venture Fund’s cross-stage nature, this relationship remains unchanged at IPO. If SpaceX goes public at a higher valuation, ARK Venture Fund investors will benefit accordingly, and vice versa. For long-term investors, an IPO represents a significant liquidity event in a company’s lifecycle, and the ARK Venture Fund’s advantage lies in positioning ahead of the public market’s repricing opportunity.

The ARK Venture Fund’s portfolio extends far beyond SpaceX. Current holdings include OpenAI, Anthropic, Neuralink, Databricks, Replit, Crusoe, Radiant, Boom, Lambda, Discord, and more than 50 private companies in total. If SpaceX’s IPO is completed, it will represent a significant milestone and unlock capital and portfolio flexibility, enabling ARK to continue building what it believes is the most compelling private innovation portfolio accessible to retail investors.

Important Information

SpaceX’s IPO filing remains a confidential draft registration statement as of the publication of this article. The final valuation, timing, and structure have not been confirmed. The public S-1 prospectus has not yet been released. All referenced data reflects publicly reported estimates and ARK’s independent research. This article does not constitute investment advice.

Your position may change at any time. This does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any specific security.