After ARB rebounded sharply in early September, the market has begun focusing on revenue expectations from Robinhood Chain and the upcoming token unlock. As the price rises rapidly, increased supply and leverage expansion are becoming the next challenge for Arbitrum.
Robinhood Chain drives the rebound
According to MetaMask market data cited in the article, ARB approached $0.197 on September 6, rising approximately 49% over 24 hours and accumulating a gain of about 127% since August 30. This rally pushed Arbitrum’s market capitalization above $1.3 billion, with significantly increased trading activity.
According to The Block, Robinhood Chain, built on Arbitrum technology, set a new activity record in early September, with daily user fees reaching $3.75 million and daily DEX trading volume exceeding $1.5 billion, prompting the market to reassess Arbitrum ecosystem’s revenue potential.
Revenue sharing is not equivalent to on-chain total fees.
Robinhood Chain has attracted attention largely due to its licensed relationship with Arbitrum and chains utilizing its technology. Under the Arbitrum Expansion Program, if the relevant chain does not settle on Arbitrum One, 10% of its net protocol revenue is funneled back into the Arbitrum ecosystem.
Of this, 8% goes to the Arbitrum DAO treasury, and 2% is allocated to the Arbitrum Developer Guild. This means that user fees generated by Robinhood Chain will not be directly distributed at an equivalent scale to ARB holders or the DAO.
Official documents show that Arbitrum's revenue for the first half of this year was $6.19 million. In July, licensing fees from the Expansion Program amounted to approximately $360,000, accounting for 35% of the DAO's monthly revenue. This indicates that Robinhood Chain has indeed introduced a new revenue stream, but the actual amount flowing back must be distinguished from the total on-chain fees.
92.65 million ARB tokens will enter circulation.
As expectations for revenue growth rise, ARB will also face new supply. According to DefiLlama, Arbitrum is set to unlock approximately 92.65 million ARB tokens, primarily allocated to team members and investors. At a price of approximately $0.197, this batch of tokens is valued at around $18.2 million.
Leverage in the derivatives market is also rising in tandem. According to CoinGlass, the open interest in ARB futures is approximately $308 million, with a 24-hour futures trading volume of about $2.15 billion. The combination of new unlocks and high leverage suggests that prices may face increased volatility after a sharp rise.
Robinhood Chain is still advancing its tokenized stocks business, but past controversies surrounding the AMC token and earlier network outages highlight ongoing operational and regulatory risks with this new chain. The market will now observe whether demand generated by Robinhood Chain can absorb the additional circulating ARB.