April 28 Market Review: S&P and Nasdaq Reach Records, Oil Surpasses $107, Bitcoin Drops After 12-Week High

Author: Schatong TechFlow

On Monday, Wall Street bulls took another step on the tightrope.

The S&P 500 rose 0.12% to close at a record high of 7,173.91. The Nasdaq Composite also closed at a record high of 24,887.10, up 0.20%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 62.92 points (-0.13%) to 49,167.79, as the tech and industrial sectors once again reversed roles on Monday.

This divergence—where the S&P and Nasdaq rise while the Dow declines—has persisted for several days. The underlying logic is clear: the strong narrative around AI and semiconductors continues to support technology-heavy stocks, while the实体经济 companies in the Dow’s components—consumer goods, industrial, and hospitality—are gradually being eroded by $107/barrel oil prices and slowing consumer confidence.

The driving forces today came from two directions:

Nvidia rose another 4%, returning to around $208, just after hitting a new all-time high last Friday and continuing its upward momentum on Monday. The market now treats this stock as a real-time sentiment indicator for AI investments. Alphabet rose 1.8%, Micron surged 5.6%, and the semiconductor sector continues to attract significant capital inflows.

On the other hand, Apple fell 1.3%, McDonald’s dropped 3%, and Domino’s Pizza plunged 10% after the pizza chain reported first-quarter comparable sales growth of just 0.9%, far below the expected 2.7%. The company also lowered its full-year 2026 outlook to low single-digit growth. As high oil prices increase delivery costs and consumers tighten their budgets, the pricing model for that pizza is beginning to unravel.

A notable number to highlight here: Since the beginning of this month, the S&P 500 has risen over 9%, the Nasdaq has surged more than 15%, and the SOX Semiconductor Index has rebounded more than 50% from its March low, posting 18 consecutive days of gains, with the RSI overbought indicator approaching 85.

This is a technological overheating signal that no one can ignore. The market may continue to rise in the overheated zone, but once bad news emerges, the correction will be faster than the ascent.

And the bad news may come within this week.

On Wednesday, April 29, the busiest day of this earnings season to date: Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon will all release their Q1 earnings after the market close, while later that afternoon, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision—widely expected to be Chair Powell’s final meeting in his current term.

The stock prices of these four companies have each risen more than 10% this month, as the market has already endorsed massive capital expenditures driven by AI narratives. However, the recent examples of ServiceNow and IBM last week remain fresh: even better-than-expected results can become a reason to short, depending crucially on guidance.

Wedbush's Dan Ives has publicly stated that he expects "good news to continue as the AI revolution accelerates full speed ahead."

However, on Thursday, April 30, earnings reports from Apple and Amazon will be released; on the same Wednesday, the Bank of Japan will hold its meeting, and on Thursday, the European Central Bank will convene. With the three major central banks plus the MAG7, if any one of them strays, the others will follow suit.

This is a crucial time window that could determine whether this rally has run its course.

Brent crude broke $107/barrel on Monday, while WTI rose to the $95–97 range. In just one week, WTI has surged more than 13% from $89.

The reason is not complicated: on the surface, it's a ceasefire; at its core, it's a deadlock.

On Monday, Axios, citing U.S. officials and individuals familiar with the matter, reported that Iran, through Pakistan, had proposed a new deal to the U.S.: reopening the Strait of Hormuz and halting attacks on ships in exchange for the U.S. military lifting its maritime blockade and delaying nuclear negotiations. At first glance, this sounds like a breakthrough, but Trump had already canceled the planned trips to Pakistan by Witkoff and Jared Kushner on Saturday, writing on Truth Social, "Too much time wasted—just call."

This statement left diplomats speechless. When negotiators are no longer flying, any proposal is merely words on paper. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, tankers continue to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, and Asia endures a daily supply loss of approximately 5 million barrels.

A detail that adds complexity to market sentiment: Iran previously proposed charging a toll of approximately $1 per barrel of oil via the Strait of Hormuz, payable in stablecoins or Bitcoin. Chainalysis, a blockchain analytics firm, revealed this week that on-chain activity by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has exceeded $3 billion in 2025, primarily through stablecoins. The “crypto toll booth” at Hormuz is transitioning from a conspiracy theory to a documented reality.

Gold closed Monday in the $4,730–4,750 range, rising in line with oil prices but with limited gains.

The underlying logic remains the same contradictory transmission chain: oil prices → rising inflation expectations → stronger dollar → downward pressure on gold prices, but at the same time, ongoing war risks → demand for safe-haven assets supporting gold prices. These two opposing forces offset each other, causing gold to move along a slow, gradual upward slope.

The statement by Warsh, a Fed chair nominee, regarding "establishing a new framework to address inflation," remains unresolved. If the Fed holds rates steady this week but signals a hawkish tone, gold prices will face short-term pressure; conversely, if Powell’s farewell performance carries a dovish tone, gold has room to catch up.

During the European trading session on Monday morning, Bitcoin surged to $79,488, reaching its highest level in 12 weeks and coming just shy of the psychological $80,000 barrier.

Then Brent crude broke $107, and Bitcoin began to reverse.

As of the close of U.S. equities on Monday, Bitcoin declined to the range of $76,600–77,900, falling approximately 1.5% over 24 hours. Ethereum dropped about 3%, while XRP and Solana each fell around 3%. The CoinDesk 20 Index (a broad-based cryptocurrency market index) declined approximately 2%. The global cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at approximately $2.68 trillion, with the Fear & Greed Index remaining in the neutral-to-fear range below 46.

Bitfinex analysts highlighted a key structural signal in their Monday report: short-term holders took profits en masse between $78,000 and $79,000 during this rally, partially offsetting continued buying pressure from ETFs and strategies. In other words, institutions are buying, but short-term bulls are selling. These opposing forces have kept Bitcoin stalled at the $80K level.

Data cited by Bloomberg shows that the initial news of Iran’s new Hormuz proposal briefly pushed Bitcoin from the $75,000 range up to $79,488. However, the subsequent rebound in oil prices dampened this optimism. Bitcoin’s price has become a real-time barometer for progress in Middle East negotiations.

On April 27, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit new all-time highs, but U.S. stocks are walking a tightrope:

U.S. Stocks: The S&P 500 closed at 7,173.91 (+0.12%), and the Nasdaq closed at 24,887.10 (+0.20%), both reaching all-time highs. Technology and semiconductor stocks continued to lead gains, while consumer stocks faced pressure. Domino's plunged 10%, illustrating the impact of high oil prices on physical consumer spending. This month, the Nasdaq has risen over 15%, and the SOX semiconductor index has risen for 18 consecutive days, showing clear signs of technical overbought conditions.

Oil prices: Brent crude surpasses $107/barrel, WTI rises to $95–97, up over 13% for the week. Iran has proposed a reopening plan for the Strait of Hormuz, but negotiations have effectively stalled, and Trump has canceled the diplomatic delegation’s trip to Pakistan.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin touched a 12-week high of $79,488 overnight but retreated to around $77,000 as oil prices strengthened, ending the day down 1.5%. Each failed attempt to break above the $80,000 level is eroding bullish momentum.

This week, the market is focused on just one thing: whether the MAG4 earnings report on Wednesday can meet expectations.

Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon have each risen over 10% this month, with their valuations already pricing in continued AI explosion. If any of these four companies issue guidance below market expectations or report Capex growth that disappoints investors, Wednesday after-hours trading could mark a painful end to this rally. If all exceed expectations, the market could still have further upside.

Another small but significant signal: This week, China’s National Development and Reform Commission ordered Meta to withdraw its $2 billion acquisition of Singapore-based AI startup Manus. The geopolitical fragmentation of AI competition is now expanding from chip export controls to capital acquisitions.

This week will be much busier than last week.