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Today's Observation
Apple has officially entered the foldable era. On September 9, newly appointed CEO John Ternus hosted his first fall launch event, introducing the first foldable iPhone Duo, priced at $1,999, while simultaneously raising the starting prices of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max to $1,199 and $1,299, respectively. More noteworthy than the product form itself is Apple’s move to raise the price ceiling for the iPhone: against the backdrop of a highly mature global smartphone market and the iPhone still contributing nearly half of the company’s revenue, foldables offer a path to grow revenue without relying on大幅 increasing shipment volumes, but instead through higher ASP and a greater share of premium products.
Historically, Apple’s launch day has not been a reliable stock price catalyst. In past major iPhone launches, the stock was more likely to decline than rise on the day of the event, but over the subsequent 60 trading days, the proportion of gains increased significantly. The reason is straightforward: the launch day prices in expectations, while the market needs to verify actual product sales, ASP, gross margin, and upgrade cycles over the next two quarters. Especially after Apple’s most recent quarter saw iPhone revenue grow more than 20% year-over-year—a record for the period—the key question this year is whether foldable devices can extend this wave of hardware growth.
Data per minute
• After assuming the role of Apple’s CEO, John Ternus hosted his first annual iPhone launch event, where the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max were released simultaneously, with starting prices of $1,199 and $1,299 respectively, both beginning at 256GB; pre-orders began on September 12 and availability started on September 18.
• The first foldable iPhone is priced at $1,999, featuring a book-style fold design with an inner screen of approximately 7.6 inches, making it the most expensive iPhone product ever released by Apple;
• On the 16 previous major iPhone launch days, Apple's stock rose 5 times and fell 11 times, with an average return of approximately -0.7%; over the subsequent 60 trading days, it rose 12 times, with an average return of approximately 4.2%.
• Historically, the best 60-day performance was during the iPhone 11 cycle, up 21.51%; the weakest was during the iPhone XR/XS cycle, down 21.68%;
• On the day of this launch, Apple's stock closed at approximately $313.55, down about 0.84%, still consistent with the historical trend of weaker performance on product launch days;
• iPhone revenue for the previous quarter was $54.252 billion, a 22% year-over-year increase and a record for the June quarter; growth was primarily driven by Pro models, accounting for approximately 49.6% of Apple's total revenue;
• IDC expects global smartphone shipments to decline 13.9% to 1.09 billion units in 2026, but the foldable category will still grow by approximately 20%; Duo’s significance lies more in Apple entering the still-growing ultra-premium segment rather than altering the overall smartphone shipment trend.
MSX View
Understanding the iPhone Duo requires looking not only at how many units it sells but also at the role it plays in Apple’s business model.
Apple remains a company heavily reliant on the iPhone. Nearly half of its revenue in the latest quarter came from the iPhone, and the recovery in Greater China was primarily driven by iPhone sales. Over the past few years, Apple’s core challenge has not been user attrition, but rather the increasing durability of smartphones and the extending replacement cycle. Under these conditions, routine upgrades to chips, cameras, and battery life can retain users but struggle to create compelling new reasons to upgrade. The significance of a foldable screen is that Apple has finally offered a visibly noticeable form factor change.
The $1,999 pricing indicates Apple is not in a hurry to make the Duo a mass-market product. The first-generation device is more of a test for ultra-premium demand: using limited sales volume to validate the foldable form factor, supply chain yield, and developer adaptation, while further raising the price ceiling beyond the Pro Max range. As long as the Duo attracts users who would otherwise buy the Pro Max, iPad mini, or lightweight laptops, it can improve average selling price and product mix—even if it represents only a small portion of iPhone shipments.
However, a high selling price does not equate to high profitability. Foldable screens, hinges, dual batteries, and additional cooling structures all increase material and after-sales costs, and first-generation products typically have lower yields than mature models. Apple’s latest gross margin for its hardware business is 40.1%, significantly lower than the 75.6% margin for its services business; if the Duo is merely priced high without achieving sufficient yield and economies of scale, its contribution to overall profitability may be less substantial than its revenue figures suggest. Deliveries only beginning in late October also mean its financial contribution to the current quarter will be relatively limited.
In addition, as smartphones enter a mature phase, routine upgrades to chips, cameras, and battery life have become increasingly insufficient to drive users to upgrade early. Foldable screens offer a more compelling purchase reason: when closed, they remain smartphones; when opened, they approach the size of a small tablet. Multi-window functionality, Apple Pencil support, and partial folding enable the iPhone to extend meaningfully into productivity, creation, and large-screen content consumption for the first time. Pingqie optimizes the user experience across all scenarios through AI. If the new Siri can understand personal information and on-screen content, the Apple Watch can organize daily information, and AirPods can deliver real-time translation, then AI will no longer be a standalone feature on a single device—but rather a unified gateway spanning phone, watch, and earbuds. Users can switch between devices, while their personal data, tasks, and services flow seamlessly behind the scenes—this is where Apple holds a distinct advantage over standalone AI applications.
From a business model perspective, these two strategies complement each other. The Duo and Pro series are designed to increase hardware prices, while AI boosts device usage frequency, further driving revenue from iCloud, the App Store, AppleCare, and other subscription services. Apple’s latest quarterly gross margin for hardware products was 40.1%, while its service gross margin reached 75.6%. Therefore, for Apple, the ideal outcome is not merely selling a more expensive Duo, but using this new form factor to encourage users to upgrade, then converting new users and increased usage time into long-term service revenue.
The longer-term value lies in the ecosystem. Apple already has over 2.5 billion active devices; selling a new iPhone connects to revenue streams from the App Store, iCloud, payments, advertising, and subscriptions. Duo’s large screen, multitasking, and Apple Pencil support create new use cases for productivity, gaming, content consumption, and generative AI. If developers are willing to redesign apps for this form factor, Duo will deliver more than just a hardware upgrade—it will drive increased service usage time and higher per-user value.
Therefore, the next areas worth analyzing are the initial delivery wait times, channel restocking, whether Pro Max has been noticeably diluted, and the additional service revenue generated by Duo users. Selling at a premium is only the first step; what John Ternus needs to prove to the market since taking office is whether this high-end, niche device can become a new ecosystem entry point.
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Risk disclaimer: Macroeconomic conditions and U.S. stock market volatility are significant; the content of this article is for academic and research observation purposes only by MaiTong Research Institute and does not constitute any investment advice.