Anthropic's IPO Sparks Debate Between Optimists and Skeptics

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Anthropic’s IPO filing has sparked a divide between bullish and bearish traders, with the stock expected to trade under the ticker 'ANT' on Nasdaq. Optimists point to 1,300% sales growth, 900% net income retention, and an 85% gross margin as key indicators supporting a potential $1.5–2 trillion valuation. Skeptics highlight an $80.7 billion net loss projected for the first half of 2026 and over 90 pages of risk disclosures, questioning the risk-to-reward profile. Redpoint’s Erica Brescia supports the IPO, while David Trainer of New Constructs calls it a “Wall Street scam.”
CoinDesk reports:

Anthropic's IPO prospectus is filled with details that excite and concern investors alike.

Bullish investors are celebrating the company’s 1,300% annual sales growth, 900% net revenue retention rate, and 85% implied gross margin. But bearish investors are focusing on a $80 billion net loss over six months, hundreds of billions of dollars in computing power commitments, and more than 90 pages of risk factors.

Regardless of which side you're on, these figures are striking and position Anthropic to potentially launch the largest initial public offering in history. At the same time, this IPO plunges investors into uncharted territory: they must value the first purely AI-focused public company amid rising interest rates and growing market concerns about the scale of AI infrastructure development.

Anthropic was valued at $965 billion in May, and the company is reportedly seeking an IPO valuation of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion, which would immediately place it among the 10 most valuable tech companies in the U.S.

“This is a historic moment; ten years from now, we’ll look back and realize this was an unprecedented technological paradigm shift that will shape our lives,” said Denny Fish, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors, on CNBC’s The Exchange on Monday. “The devil is in the details, and we don’t yet have all the details.”

Anthropic was founded in 2021 by a group of researchers who left OpenAI, best known for its Claude AI model and services sold through enterprise contracts and subscriptions.

In the highly anticipated prospectus released on Monday, Anthropic stated that its enterprise customer base includes more than 11,900 customers that spent at least $100,000 in the past year; more than 1,900 customers that spent $1 million or more; and approximately 250 customers that spent $10 million or more. In the first nine months of 2026, five customers accounted for approximately one-quarter of the company’s revenue.

Erica Brescia, managing partner at Redpoint Ventures, told CNBC’s The Exchange on Monday: “I think it’s easy to overlook just how early stage this is, and it’s incredible that a company like Anthropic is performing so well so early in the journey.”

She said, "Anthropic still has tremendous opportunities ahead." Brescia’s fund is an investor in Anthropic. She also added, "I believe this presents an incredibly exciting opportunity for retail investors to get involved in this transformation, rather than just buying chip stocks."

However, for many investors who focus on fundamentals, Anthropic is not an easy sell.

The company incurred a loss of $80.7 billion in the first six months of this year, compared to a loss of $12.9 billion during the same period in 2025; however, most of this loss stemmed from fair value changes in convertible notes and derivative liabilities. Meanwhile, as competition intensifies due to low-cost open-source weight models, the company’s computing power commitments have also surged.

David Trainer, CEO of financial research firm New Constructs, described Anthropic’s upcoming offering as “a massive scam for Wall Street.”

The trainer is known on Wall Street for being bearish on IPOs. Last month, his company released a report calling Anthropic “the most absurd IPO of 2026” and described it as an “unprecedented test” of investor gullibility.

After reviewing the prospectus, Trainer told CNBC on Tuesday that his position has not changed. He said AI will be “an excellent tool for society,” but not necessarily for companies; he expressed concerns about Anthropic’s competitive position, its “opaque” insider sale arrangements, and the fact that its commitments and liabilities far exceed its cash.

“These people all hold shares in Anthropic and all want to cash out,” Trainer said. “I lived through the dot-com bubble and the global financial crisis, and I was on Wall Street during both periods, seeing how things worked. To me, this feels like a slow-moving train wreck.”

Roger McNamee, an early investor in Google and Facebook, told CNBC on Tuesday that Anthropic’s IPO is “a very dangerous thing” for investors, adding that the industry still has much to prove.

“We should view this S-1 as a work of speculative fiction, because it’s a great story—a really great story—but it’s hundreds of pages long, and those hundreds of pages aren’t meant to clarify the story,” said McNamee, co-founder of Elevation Partners, on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.” “And based on the feedback I’ve received on X, many people who disagree with me say, ‘I love this story,’ and I’ll respond, ‘Well, God bless you—that’s your money.’”

Anthropic’s public filing brings it one step closer to an IPO, but several hurdles remain before it truly reaches the starting line.

During the roadshow, the company must also engage potential investors, assess demand, determine the offering price, and allocate shares. Only after completing all these steps will it finally list on Nasdaq under the stock ticker “ANT”.

Investors will closely monitor every development and detail.

Gil Luria, Managing Director at D.A. Davidson, said he wants to learn more before the company goes public, particularly regarding its long-term profitability path and valuation. He said in an interview on Tuesday that if the IPO is priced appropriately, the performance is likely to be “excellent.”

“We can discuss risks, but based on what we know now and where we stand today, Anthropic remains the premier AI company and a pure play,” said Luria. “So this IPO should perform well, as investors will want exposure to a pure play.”

Watch: Ben Narasin of Tenacity says Anthropic’s IPO valuation could approach $2 trillion.

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