Anthropic is the only major company remaining on Kalshi's IPO market that traders consider likely to officially announce an IPO in 2026. Anthropic had 75% odds as of Monday morning. None of the other companies among the 23 still open for trading had odds above 50%. Anthropic confidentially filed a prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission in early June.
Kalshi's market asks whether companies will officially announce an IPO in 2026. A qualifying announcement requires the SEC to declare a company's S-1 effective, an IPO to price, or an exchange to assign a stock ticker. Kalshi resolves the contracts using various news outlets as sources.
Kalshi traders gave financial technology company Plaid 50% odds of going public this year in January. Plaid's odds now stand at 10%. Plaid reportedly has an $8 billion private-market valuation. Human resources and payroll platform Deel had 50% odds as recently as February. Deel's odds of going public in 2026 now stand at 3%. Cloud and artificial intelligence platform Databricks has 1% odds, down from more than 50% in January.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has ruled out taking Anthropic's chief rival public in 2026. Altman said last month that going public did not make sense amid concerns about AI safety. Kalshi traders now give OpenAI a 3% chance of going public this year. Kalshi traders give OpenAI a 50% chance of officially announcing an IPO by June 2027.
Investors entered 2026 expecting numerous IPOs, including offerings from megacap private companies such as SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI. Several planned offerings have been postponed this year. IPO postponements across sectors have increased in recent weeks. IPO proceeds this year are up sharply, driven by megacap debuts, notably SpaceX in June. However, Renaissance Capital says the number of U.S. IPOs priced this year is down 33% compared with 2025.
Investors are betting that major AI companies and suppliers supporting AI infrastructure will enter public markets to access more capital for development. Public markets are seen as the next step to support the rapid growth of many such companies. However, Anthropic's revenue disclosure last week called optimistic growth assumptions into question. Anthropic revealed third-quarter revenue of $16.8 billion, representing weaker quarter-over-quarter growth than in previous periods.
22V Research analyst Dauvin Peterson wrote on Sunday that questions remained about September's revenue growth slowdown and Anthropic's ability to meet market expectations amid large language model pricing pressure. Peterson said a revised IPO valuation range starting at $1.5 trillion disappointed investors against a prior expectation of at least $2 trillion. Peterson said the revised valuation added to pressure on AI-related equities that were already falling.
Anthropic Leads AI Trade's IPO Odds in 2026 with 75% Probability
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Summary
Anthropic leads AI trade's IPO odds in 2026 with a 75% probability, per FLASH AI. On-chain data shows it filed a confidential SEC prospectus in early June. The fear and greed index remains elevated as its $16.8 billion revenue raises valuation concerns. OpenAI, led by Sam Altman, has a 3% IPO chance this year. Plaid, Deel, and Databricks trail with much lower odds.
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