Cathy Zheng, associate professor of finance at Bryant University, warned that a successful Anthropic IPO could make SpaceX one of the biggest losers by attracting investors away from Elon Musk's AI businesses. Zheng identified listed companies competing with Anthropic for AI growth investment as the most vulnerable. Zheng described SpaceX, which owns xAI and the Grok models, as the clearest example.
An Anthropic listing would offer investors more direct exposure to advanced AI models than SpaceX, which also operates rockets and Starlink. Anthropic's Claude competes against Grok. Claude Code competes against Cursor, the coding company that SpaceX bought in August. Zheng said enthusiasm for AI could increase while share prices decline for some companies that have already benefited from AI investment.
Zheng said the largest technology companies are unlikely to be the main casualties. Zheng noted that even a $100 billion Anthropic fundraising would represent less than 1% of the combined market capitalization of Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet. Zheng said investment shifting into Anthropic would be a one-time event, while those companies' earnings power would continue growing. Those companies could also gain from Anthropic's infrastructure purchases. Nvidia provides chips, while Microsoft, Amazon and Google provide cloud capacity. Zheng said much of the money Anthropic raises in the IPO would return to those suppliers.
Anthropic is also SpaceX's biggest customer. Anthropic reportedly generated 34.5% of SpaceX's revenue last quarter, the third quarter, amounting to roughly $5 billion. Anthropic's IPO filing lists computing agreements with SpaceX valued at up to $120.5 billion through 2029. Either company can terminate those agreements with 90 days' notice after early 2027. A successful listing could help Anthropic fulfill those commitments, even while attracting investment away from SpaceX.
SpaceX ended the first trading day of the company's June IPO with a market capitalization of approximately $2.1 trillion. Polymarket traders assign Anthropic a 28% probability of exceeding that debut valuation to become 2026's largest IPO by first-day market capitalization. Trading volume on that market totals $7.4 million. Anthropic's success could bring SpaceX billions in additional business while reducing the premium investors will pay for Musk's AI ambitions.
Anthropic IPO Could Attract Investment Away From SpaceX, Finance Professor Warns
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Summary
AI + crypto news: A Bryant University finance professor warned that a successful Anthropic IPO could shift investor focus from SpaceX, affecting Elon Musk’s AI ventures. Anthropic, which is SpaceX’s top client, generated 34.5% of its Q3 revenue and has $120.5 billion in computing deals through 2029. Crypto news suggests the IPO could offer clearer AI exposure than SpaceX, which also runs rockets and Starlink.
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