Anthropic Files for IPO, Fed Expected to Hold Rates, Brazil Market Plummets

1. Anthropic publicly filed its S-1 prospectus, reporting $16.3 billion in revenue for the first half of the year, boosting tech stocks to lead gains. This marks the first formal IPO filing by a leading AI lab, with the proposed stock ticker "ANT." The prospectus also revealed that the company remains in a significant loss position (net loss of approximately $80.7 billion for the first half), but strong revenue growth drove a single-day surge of 2.82% in the semiconductor sector.
2. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce on Wednesday, October 28, that it will hold interest rates steady, with market participants closely watching for any changes in wording. Multiple media outlets (CNBC, WSJ, CBS, Semafor) uniformly anticipate that the FOMC will maintain rates unchanged. Bank of America still forecasts a rate hike but with low confidence; the Detroit Free Press notes that a rate increase would further raise borrowing costs. The federal funds rate is currently in the range of 3.75% to 4.00%.
3. Strategy (MSTR) breaks its four-week streak of Bitcoin purchases, shifting focus to repurchasing STRC preferred shares. According to Seeking Alpha and Investing.com, Strategy paused Bitcoin purchases this week while repurchasing $2.049 billion in STRC preferred shares. Previously, on October 12, the company purchased 250 BTC and repurchased $1.92 billion in STRC. TradingView reports that Michael Saylor has expanded the STRC repurchase program to $3 billion. 24/7 Wall St. notes that Strategy recorded an $8.3 billion unrealized loss on its Bitcoin holdings last quarter.
4. Brazil's unexpected re-election of Lula triggered market turmoil, with some stocks plunging 50%. Major outlets including Reuters, Bloomberg, NYT, and The Economist reported significant declines in Brazil’s stock market and the real, with certain stocks falling as much as 50%. CNBC noted that the shock also impacted the neocloud sector, pressuring AI infrastructure stocks such as CoreWeave.
5. CoreWeave (CRWV) continues to face pressure, with short sellers profiting $6 billion. Seeking Alpha reports CoreWeave fell 10% to a 52-week low; 24/7 Wall St. notes that short sellers have gained $6 billion from the decline in AI data center stocks; TradingKey analyzes that CoreWeave is under financing pressure due to a $10 billion order backlog and a $2 billion funding gap, potentially leading to another 16% drop in share price.

Closing prices of the three major indices (Eastern Time, October 26, 2026, 16:00)

Data source: Yahoo Finance

Other key metrics

Data source: Yahoo Finance

Market drivers

• Anthropic's IPO boosts tech/AI sentiment: The first frontier AI lab publicly files its S-1 prospectus, reporting $16.3 billion in revenue for the first half of the year, driving semiconductor and AI sectors to lead market gains. The SOX index rose 2.82% in a single day, its largest gain recently.
• Waiting for the Fed decision: The market generally expects the FOMC to hold rates steady this week, with the 10-year yield slightly declining to 4.986%.
• Limited spillover from Brazil: Market volatility in Brazil primarily affects emerging market assets and certain Neocloud stocks, with minimal impact on the broader U.S. stock market.
• Oil prices decline: WTI falls from above $103 to $101.52, easing inflation concerns.

1. Anthropic (proposed ticker: ANT) — AI frontier lab IPO

• Event: On October 26, publicly filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC, aiming to list on Nasdaq under the stock ticker "ANT".
• Key data: Revenue of $16.3 billion in the first half of the year; net loss of approximately $80.7 billion (including significant R&D and computing power expenses); adopts a dual-class share structure, modeled after Zuckerberg/Musk.
• Impact: As the first frontier AI lab to go public, it validates the commercialization progress and market acceptance of the AI sector, boosting sentiment across the broader technology/AI sector, with the SOX index rising 2.82% in a single day.
• Risk: Massive losses; questionable sustainability of capital expenditures on computing power; Business Insider reports that this IPO has sparked market concerns about an oversupply of AI stocks.

2. Semiconductor sector (SOX +2.82%)

• Event: Anthropic's IPO news, combined with expectations for tech earnings season, led the semiconductor sector to lead gains.
• Impact: SOX rose from 10,779.46 to 11,083.47. This week, major tech giants including Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Intel will release earnings reports密集ly, with AI capital expenditures and chip demand as key focus areas.

3. CoreWeave (CRWV) — AI Computing / Data Center

• Event: Stock prices have remained under sustained pressure, reaching a 52-week low. Short sellers have accumulated $6 billion in profits from the decline in AI data center stocks.
• Key data: A 10% single-day drop on October 22; the company faces funding pressure due to a $100 billion order backlog and a $20 billion funding gap.
• Impact: The market is repricing the "credit risk" of AI infrastructure, putting pressure on the entire neocloud sector.

4. Brazil-related assets — Lula’s re-election impact

• Event: Brazilian President Lula unexpectedly won re-election, causing a strong market reaction.
• Key data: Certain Brazilian stocks plunged by up to 50%, and the real depreciated significantly.
• Impact: The WSJ comments that "the market is not pricing in Lula's vote"; The Economist notes that investor concerns over Brazil's fiscal discipline have intensified. The direct impact on U.S. stocks is limited, but it may weigh on emerging market ETFs and expectations for multinational companies' operations in Brazil.

5. Visa (V) — After-Hours Earnings Report

• Event: Visa will release its FY2026 Q4 earnings report after market close on Tuesday, October 27 (quarter ended September).
• Key data: EPS last year同期: $2.98; analyst consensus EPS for this quarter: $3.43 (12 analysts); market cap: $728.9 billion.
• Focus: Progress in stablecoin and crypto payment integration (CoinDesk reports stablecoin payment volume surged 45% to $482 billion, with Visa/Mastercard/Stripe linking crypto and fiat); cross-border payment volumes and consumption trends.

6. This week features a dense schedule of tech earnings reports.

• Event: Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Intel (INTC), Eli Lilly (LLY), and others will陆续 release their earnings reports.
• Impact: The market is focused on the scale of AI capital expenditures and return expectations. Yahoo Finance reported that this week is a "tech earnings super week" coinciding with the Fed meeting.

DAT Company Updates

Strategy (MSTR) — Pause coin purchases and shift to STRC buybacks

• Pause in Bitcoin Purchases: Seeking Alpha reports, "Strategy breaks four-week Bitcoin buying run as BTC slips"—the company has halted its four-week streak of Bitcoin purchases. Investing.com confirms that Strategy has paused Bitcoin purchases and is repurchasing $204.9 million in STRC preferred shares.
• STRC buyback expansion: TradingView reports that Michael Saylor has expanded the STRC buyback program to $3 billion, maintaining a "muted" approach to coin purchases.
• Q3 Unrealized Losses Alert: 24/7 Wall St. reports that Strategy recorded an $8.3 billion unrealized loss on Bitcoin last quarter (under fair value accounting) and questions whether it can turn a profit in Q3. InvestingLive analysis notes that Strategy prioritized share repurchases over Bitcoin purchases ahead of its earnings report.
• Background: On October 12, Strategy previously purchased 250 BTC and repurchased $192 million worth of STRC.

Bitmine (BMNR) and Strive (ASST) — Continue Accumulating

• BMNR: According to CrowdFund Insider (October 6), Bitmine's ETH holdings have reached 6.02 million. TradingView reports Tom Lee commenting that BMNR and ASST continue to increase their crypto treasuries.
• ASST: CrowdFund Insider reports that ASST's BTC holdings are approaching the level of MARA Holdings. TD Cowen raised ASST's target price by 27% to $56 on October 17, citing an accelerated pace of Bitcoin accumulation.

New Entrants and Transformation

• No new DAT transformation announcements today. Notable recent developments: BMNR and ASST, as emerging DAT companies, have continued to increase their holdings of BTC/ETH, though these are not new announcements for today.
• MSCI index inclusion: Stocktwits (March 5) reported that MSCI decided not to exclude DAT from its index, which is positive for MSTR, BMNR, and ASST.

General Cryptocurrency U.S. Stocks

Exchange and platform

• HOOD earnings expectations: Nasdaq’s calendar shows that HOOD will release its Q3 earnings after market close on November 5. Last year’s EPS was $0.61; analysts expect this quarter’s EPS to be $0.56.

Spot Bitcoin ETF

• Fund Flows: Tokenist (October 15) reported that FBTC and IBIT combined for a net outflow of $263.6 million in a single day. Previously (October 4), 24/7 Wall St. reported that BlackRock’s IBIT attracted $196 million in a single day, while Fidelity’s FBTC recorded positive inflows on only one day during the entire week.
• Trend: Bitcoin ETF fund flows are diverging—IBIT, as the leader, continues to experience intermittent large inflows, but overall inflow momentum is slowing.

Mining companies

• AI/HPC Transition: CoinDesk previously reported that VanEck highlighted a $50 billion reality check for mining companies transitioning to AI. Hut 8 and IREN secured new contracts worth billions of dollars in July, boosting AI computing stocks such as MARAR, RIOT, and WULF.

Stablecoins and Payments

• Visa/Mastercard/Stripe: CoinDesk (October 18) reported that the supply of stablecoins has stagnated, but payment volume surged 45% to $482 billion, as Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe actively connect cryptocurrency with traditional payments.
• Mesh × Visa: The Paypers (October 23) and The Block (October 19) report that Mesh has partnered with Visa to allow users to spend their crypto asset balances without requiring a separate crypto card.
• Stripe/Visa consortium stablecoin: Bloomberg (September 30) reported that a consortium backed by Stripe and Visa has launched a USD-stablecoin.
• Sources: CoinDesk, The Paypers, The Block, Bloomberg, September 30–October 23.

Regulatory and accounting-driven

• SEC and FASB Continue Advancing Crypto Rules: CFO Dive (August 18) reports that the SEC and FASB are separately advancing crypto proposals, while the Clarity Act remains stalled in Congress. The FASB’s stablecoin cash equivalents proposal is regarded as "the accounting infrastructure institutions have been waiting for" (Yahoo Finance, August 20).
• Impact: Clarification of accounting standards (allowing stablecoins to be classified as cash equivalents) will reduce legal and financial barriers for companies holding crypto assets, benefiting DAT and institutional participation.
• Sources: CFO Dive, Yahoo Finance, WSJ, August.

Changes to the Cryptocurrency US Stocks Watchlist

1. Impact of the Brazilian Election

• Event: Brazilian President Lula unexpectedly won re-election, causing a strong market reaction.
• Transmission pathway: Brazil’s stock market plunges (some stocks down 50%) → Real sharply depreciates → Emerging market risk appetite declines → Some capital flows back into dollar-denominated assets.
• Impact on U.S. stocks: Direct impact is limited (Brazil’s weight in U.S. equities is low), but it may weigh on emerging market ETFs (such as EWM, EWW) and expectations for multinational companies’ operations in Brazil. CNBC reports that the ripple effect has reached the neocloud sector.
• Impact on crypto: Emerging market volatility typically weighs on risk assets in the short term, including BTC, but may bolster the "digital gold" narrative over the medium to long term.
• Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, NYT, The Economist, WSJ, Barron's, October 26.

2. The Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Policy

• Event: The FOMC will announce its interest rate decision this Wednesday, October 28.
• Transmission pathway: Market expectations remain unchanged → If the wording is hawkish (implying a possible rate hike in December) → U.S. Treasury yields rise → High-valuation tech stocks and crypto assets come under pressure; if the wording is dovish → Risk assets rebound.
• Uncertainty: Bank of America still forecasts rate hikes but with low confidence; Detroit Free Press analyzes the impact of rate hikes on borrowing costs; Washington Post notes that the Fed typically avoids adjusting rates before elections.
• Sources: WSJ, CNBC, CBS News, Semafor, Morningstar, Detroit Free Press, October 26.

3. Middle East Situation and Oil Prices

• Previously, the Shaybah oil field in Saudi Arabia was targeted by drone attacks, prompting the U.S. to deploy a third aircraft carrier, causing WTI to surge briefly to $103.
• Latest: WTI has retreated to $101.52 (-1.70%), but remains at elevated levels.
• Transmission pathway: High oil prices → Rising inflation expectations → Increased pressure on the Fed to raise rates → Pressure on technology and crypto assets.
• Source: Reuters, EIA, October 26.

October 27 (Tuesday)

Later this week

• Tech giants' earnings reports: Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Intel (INTC), and Eli Lilly (LLY) will be released in sequence.
• November 5: Robinhood (HOOD) announces Q3 earnings after market close.

Risk Alert

1. Fed statement wording: If it implies an increased probability of a December rate hike, tech and crypto assets may come under pressure.
2. Tech earnings: AI capital expenditures—markets will scrutinize the scale of AI investments and return expectations of major tech companies, with AI sector sentiment sensitive following Anthropic’s IPO.
3. Brazil's shock spreads: Monitor whether emerging market assets continue to decline and whether this affects risk appetite.
4. Strategy Q3 Earnings: The company is about to report its Q3 results—how will an $8.3 billion unrealized loss on Bitcoin impact the financial statements and market sentiment?
5. Oil price outlook: WTI is near $101; further escalation in the Middle East could push prices above $105, intensifying inflation concerns.