Author: Faizan Farooque
Compiled by: DeepChain TechFlow
Anthropic targets $2 trillion valuation as Wall Street faces its biggest AI IPO test
DeepChain Overview: Anthropic is nearing finalization of key banking roles for its IPO, with investors expecting a listing valuation of $2 trillion or higher—surpassing SpaceX’s $1.77 trillion valuation at its June listing and setting a new record for the IPO market. Just a few months ago, the company’s valuation in February was $380 billion, rising to $965 billion after raising $65 billion in May. This article outlines the battle for banking roles, revised timelines, uncertainties around revenue growth, and explains why this IPO has become Wall Street’s most transparent test of the AI boom to date.
Anthropic may soon find out just how much Wall Street believes in the artificial intelligence hype.
According to the Financial Times, the developer of Claude is nearing finalization of key banking roles for its IPO, with investors expecting the company’s valuation to reach $2 trillion or more. Morgan Stanley (MS) appears likely to serve as the lead left bookrunner, while Goldman Sachs (GS) will be responsible for post-offer price stabilization.
Even by AI industry standards, this is an astonishing price.
Anthropic raised $65 billion in May, with the company valued at $965 billion at the time. This implies a public market valuation of $2 trillion, representing an increase of nearly 107% within a few months.
And this is the key to the whole matter.
Anthropic is not just preparing for an IPO. It may be asking public market investors to endorse one of the fastest valuation jumps in business history.
The $2 trillion figure has changed the stakes of IPOs.
According to the Financial Times, Morgan Stanley has been discussing the offering price with potential investors in Anthropic, but it remains unclear whether it will serve as the lead underwriter. After providing financing to Anthropic, JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Barclays (BCS) are also expected to secure significant roles.
The "lead left" position is important because the bank in this role typically has significant influence over pricing, investor allocation, and the overall offering presentation.
But what the banks are competing for is not just status.
Anthropic's $2 trillion valuation will surpass SpaceX's $1.77 trillion valuation at its June IPO, setting a new record for the IPO market. SpaceX's initial offering raised $75 billion, but this amount later increased to $85.7 billion after underwriters exercised their overallotment option.
The speed at which Anthropic itself is advancing is also surprising.
According to Reuters, the company raised $30 billion in February at a $380 billion valuation. A $65 billion funding round in May pushed its valuation to $965 billion. At the time, Anthropic estimated its annualized run rate revenue exceeded $47 billion.
This means that Anthropic’s private market valuation has more than tripled since February.
Wall Street is betting that AI can fuel another historic IPO.
The timing of this IPO is crucial for stocks in the artificial intelligence sector.
SpaceX’s highly publicized IPO demonstrated that investors are willing to support a massive valuation partly built on AI-inspired imagination. Anthropic now has the potential to take this enthusiasm even further.
For Wall Street, there is a second layer of return.
The Financial Times reports that Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are also seen as top contenders in the race for OpenAI’s future IPO. Securing a leading role in the Anthropic project could help solidify any bank’s position as the primary advisor to the next generation of trillion-dollar AI startups.
But Anthropic's valuation is a difficult hurdle to overcome.
Just a few months later, investors are paying more than twice the company’s $2 trillion valuation in May.
This means growth expectations have become critical.
Anthropic's revenue in July, annualized, is approximately $65 billion, below some investors' more optimistic projections of nearly $80 billion. Competition is also intensifying: OpenAI has launched a new flagship model, and both companies are vying to attract enterprise and developer customers.
Chart: Anthropic is preparing for a major IPO, while Wall Street scrambles for a piece of the action.
Source: Bloomberg / Getty Images
Anthropic's IPO timeline has changed.
Since the Financial Times first reported on this, one important factor has changed.
The Financial Times reported that Anthropic could announce its prospectus as early as September and begin trading by late September or early October; however, Reuters later reported that this timeline has been delayed.
Under the current schedule, Anthropic will submit its prospectus by the end of September, begin roadshows around mid-October, and potentially complete its listing before the U.S. midterm elections in November.
According to Reuters, the company is also close to finalizing a $15 billion revolving credit facility, with participants including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup.
This creates an additional financial tie between these banks and Anthropic before the IPO launch.
Anthropic could become Wall Street's biggest AI test to date
It’s easy to view Anthropic’s IPO as another sign of the AI boom.
But precisely because of this, the significance of this valuation goes beyond that.
A $2 trillion valuation requires public market investors to support a company that was valued at $380 billion in February and $965 billion in May.
But that doesn’t mean investors will let it go. Anthropic’s revenue growth, adoption of its technology by companies such as Amazon’s AI division, and its ability to raise massive amounts of cash all point to exceptionally strong market demand for its technology.
But an IPO will change the audience behind the scenes.
Investors in the primary market bet on growth over the coming years and can afford to pay high prices, while public market investors will eventually have to see these expectations realized on a quarterly basis.
This is precisely why Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs may be fiercely competing for the top spot.
Anthropic could become Wall Street’s most famous deal. It could also become the most transparent test yet: just how far investors will push this AI boom before pricing itself becomes the danger.
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