BlockBeats report: On June 11, following a brief rally since the beginning of June, U.S. equities have trended downward, with the S&P 500 index falling nearly 5% since reaching a high of 7,620 on the 2nd. As the market continues to correct, investors are beginning to question their belief in the "eternal bull market" in U.S. stocks. Analysts' views on June's market performance are summarized below by BlockBeats:
The renowned investment research program Foundation for the Study of Cycles (FSC), in its latest podcast, used cycle analysis to indicate that, as of approximately June 8, 2026, multiple medium- and short-term cycles across major U.S. stock indices are highly synchronized in forming a cluster of tops. The market is currently in a clear top-alignment window, suggesting downward pressure from June through late summer into autumn (until October–November), particularly in the technology and semiconductor sectors, which show the strongest synchronized peaks. Technical indicators also reveal Cyclic RSI divergences. Overall, the recommendation is to maintain caution in the short term, as volatile or corrective movements are likely; however, the financial sector remains one of the few areas still exhibiting bullish cycle momentum.
In a mid-year market report released in mid-May, Morgan Stanley stated that U.S. equities will lead global market gains, driven by strong earnings growth, with the S&P 500 expected to rise 12% over the next 12 months. However, the report also cautioned that increased corporate debt issuance to fund artificial intelligence spending could put pressure on credit performance. Meanwhile, expectations of slowing inflation and lower U.S. interest rates are likely to weigh on the dollar over the coming months, though a recovery may begin in 2027.
Fidelity's research report notes that recent geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and hotter-than-expected inflation data have pushed yields higher, triggering a correction in tech stocks and indices. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have seen notable declines, with semiconductor and AI-related sectors under pressure. The VIX volatility index has risen; given the historically muted performance of U.S. equities in June, the current movement can still be viewed as a normal profit-taking or seasonal adjustment.
Prominent U.S. stock KOL Herman Jin continues to warn of the bubble risk posed by low P/E ratios in the semiconductor sector during the AI bull market. He cautions that the market’s optimistic pricing, which assumes alignment between model revenues and capital expenditures, is unrealistic; short-term model diversification may erode growth expectations, ultimately leading to industry restructuring through cost adjustments and increased wealth concentration.