Foreign media report that crypto analyst VirtualBacon believes evaluating whether Solana is worth allocating to now cannot rely solely on SOL’s recent rebound; instead, one must first assess Bitcoin’s position in the market. His core argument is that if Bitcoin has not yet entered a sufficiently undervalued range, the risk-reward profile of allocating to highly volatile altcoins is not favorable.
First, let's look at Bitcoin's position.
The article states that VirtualBacon has identified two key reference levels for Bitcoin at approximately $62,000 and $53,000, corresponding to the 200-week moving average and the realized price, respectively. He believes that if Bitcoin continues to retrace toward these levels, it could create a more favorable long-term entry opportunity for the market.
According to him, one should not rush to buy Solana or other altcoins before Bitcoin’s valuation has clearly declined. In other words, the timing to allocate to SOL depends first on whether BTC has completed another round of deeper adjustment.
SOL drawdowns are typically greater than BTC's.
VirtualBacon further measures risk using the relative performance of SOL/BTC. He noted that during the downturn in September 2025, Bitcoin declined approximately 54% from its peak, while Solana declined about 76%, indicating that SOL’s drop was roughly 1.4 times that of BTC.
- BTC key reference levels: approximately $62,000, $53,000
- Historical drawdown comparison: BTC ~54%, SOL ~76%
- Estimated target range: SOL may retest around $65
Based on this historical volatility relationship, he estimates that if Bitcoin retraces to around $53,500, SOL could decline from its current level to approximately $65. According to this logic, the $65 range is closer to his assessed fair value zone.
Reward space narrows above $80
VirtualBacon remains cautious about SOL’s recent rise above $82, noting that the area around $80 is not an ideal entry point, as the potential upside is significantly reduced compared to purchasing at lower costs.
According to their calculations, if SOL rises to approximately $290 in the next bull market, the return would be about 3.5 times for a purchase near $82, and nearly 4.7 times for a purchase near $60. The article concludes that the purchase cost has a greater impact on the final returns of highly volatile assets.
He also stated that the market should no longer simply apply the price appreciation expectations from the previous cycle. In his view, SOL’s potential for a 10x increase in this cycle is already limited.