ChainThink reports that, according to Axel Adler Jr., an analyst at CryptoQuant, the August Bitcoin market outlook shows that BTC has retraced approximately 50% from its cycle high of $126,200 set in October 2025 and is now nearing the on-chain combined holding cost. A sideways trading range is expected for August.
The report suggests that the most likely scenario for August is BTC trading in the range of $57,700 to $67,000, with a probability of approximately 55%, and closing the month between $60,000 and $64,000.
The bearish scenario has a probability of approximately 30%, corresponding to a break below $57,700 and further testing of the on-chain realized price of around $52,800.
The bullish scenario has an approximate 15% probability, requiring BTC to hold above $67,000 alongside sustained ETF inflows, declining U.S. Treasury yields, and a weaker dollar, with a target range of $71,000 to $74,000.
The report states that current valuations are near the on-chain cost zone, and spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to experience net inflows, providing market support; however, the high-interest-rate environment, persistently elevated U.S. Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar still limit the upside potential for risk assets.
Key macroeconomic events in August, such as the U.S. non-farm payrolls, CPI, and the Jackson Hole central bank symposium, also require attention.