The CLARITY Act did not receive enough support in the US Senate, so it could not move to official discussion. This triggered a correction in the broader cryptocurrency market, while the upcoming FOMC meeting may worsen the sector’s condition.
The prevailing expectation is that interest rates in the USA will rise by 0.25%, yet analyst Ali Martinez assumed the central bank may be forced to keep the benchmark unchanged, which could propel a BTC price rally. Here’s why.
Influence From Trump?
Martinez started his thesis by noting the CLARITY Act failure and describing it as “a major setback for one of Trump’s crypto-policy objectives ahead of the November midterms.”
Then, he revealed that the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike following the FOMC meeting, scheduled for later today (September 16), are roughly 93%, with only a small minority expecting the figure to stay the same.
According to the analyst, the smaller group may actually get it right this time. He pointed to the approaching midterms in the US, arguing that Trump needs a political win and that another rate increase could create more economic pressure, possibly hurting his chances of success.
“That could weigh on Kevin Warsh and the FOMC’s decision-making,” he said.
Martinez thinks that such a surprise move could trigger a powerful rally across risk assets, with BTC (which has rarely risen after the past 14 FOMC decisions) potentially surpassing $82,000.
“This is my wild prediction. Not the consensus view. Trump needs a win. A no-hike decision could give markets exactly the surprise they need to rally,” he concluded.
However, another angle is worth considering. The widely expected rate hike may already be priced in, making Fed Chair Warsh’s press conference the key event to watch. It will take place immediately after the FOMC meeting, and any signals of further rate increases could negatively impact BTC and altcoins. On the other hand, a softer tone and remarks that the central bank has made progress on inflation could lead to a solid rebound.
Massive Shorts Ahead of the Meeting
X user Max Crypto revealed that a mysterious whale opened a $50 million short position on BTC and a $15.8 million short on ETH ahead of the central bank’s crucial decision.
Usually, such major bets fuel speculation that the trader may have access to inside information. However, the whale’s win rate is around 40.6%, meaning their track record is far from flawless.
Meanwhile, another anonymous trader (with a staggering 100% win rate) recently opened multi-million shorts on BTC, ETH, and ZEC before the CLARITY Act vote. As mentioned above, the bill did not move forward for official discussion, and the crypto market headed south.
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