Bitcoin's recent pullback has unsettled many investors, but Matt Crosby, Director of Research and Analysis at LookIntoBitcoin, is not concerned. He says on-chain data indicates that the bear market low has "basically occurred," and the next rally could happen faster than most expect.
Crosby’s main basis is an indicator called Realized Cap HODL Waves, which tracks what portion of Bitcoin’s average purchase cost comes from investors who have held their coins for at least three months. According to him, when this percentage rises above 80%, it indicates that long-term holders are firmly in control and short-term speculation has subsided. He describes this reading as “historically marking Bitcoin’s bear market lows,” and this time is no exception.
Selling pressure has been exhausted.
Crosby described the recent market as the "dictionary definition of a exhausted seller." Bitcoin had previously faced a series of negative catalysts:
- Coldcard vulnerability exploited
- The CLARITY Act was delayed and subsequently rejected in the Senate.
- Miners are selling Bitcoin to shift toward artificial intelligence.
- Treasury company sells its holdings
Nevertheless, the price continues to rise. The supply held by long-term holders has also begun to decline, which Crosby interprets as new capital entering the market to buy.
He believes there are no signs of market overheating. Instead, he describes the current movement as a healthy, spot-driven rotation of capital from stocks, bonds, and commodities into Bitcoin.
Why might Bitcoin rise so quickly?
Crosby noted that Bitcoin recently rose rapidly from $64,000 to $84,000. Since long-term holders control a large portion of the supply and rarely sell, he estimates that for every $1 of new capital entering the market, Bitcoin’s market capitalization increases by approximately $6.20. This means that even a small outflow of funds from the AI bubble or bond markets could drive a significant price increase.
Bitcoin's share of global capital
At around $87,000, Bitcoin accounted for approximately 0.32% of all global invested capital, below its historical high of nearly 0.5%. As the total global capital base continues to grow, Crosby said:
- If Bitcoin were to return to its previous peak market share, its price would rise to approximately $134,000, exceeding its all-time high of $126,000.
- If Bitcoin captures 1% of global capital, it would be worth approximately $281,000 per coin at current levels, and could exceed $500,000 in ten years.
- If it captures 3% of global capital, the price could reach approximately $1.75 million within a decade.
Silver comparison: $400,000
Crosby's boldest comparison is between Bitcoin and silver. When silver hit its low in 2022, its market capitalization was approximately $1 trillion; Bitcoin's most recent low was around $1.1 trillion.
Silver then rose approximately 593% over 3.4 years. Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 and typically moves faster, Crosby adjusted this timeline to about 2.3 years. If Bitcoin were to replicate silver’s gain over this period, its price would reach approximately $400,000.
He stated that, to date, the path correlation between Bitcoin and silver is approximately 90%. He acknowledged that this target may be overly optimistic and did not specify an exact peak, but noted that the global capital model yields a result close to this level, around $390,000.
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