ChainCatcher report: According to tech analyst Ed Zitron, citing estimates from Barclays, UBS, and Wells Fargo, the compute spending from OpenAI and Anthropic may account for more than 70% of the AI revenue generated by the three major cloud providers—Microsoft, Google, and Amazon. Specifically, Barclays analyst Ross Sandler estimates that approximately 73% of Amazon Web Services’ AI revenue in 2026 will come from these two companies; UBS analyst Stephen Ju estimates that about 28% of Google Cloud’s revenue in 2026 and over 48% in 2027 will stem from them; Wells Fargo estimates that Microsoft Azure’s revenue for FY2026 will be approximately 23% and for FY2027 approximately 35% derived from these two AI labs. The analysis indicates that AWS’s non-OpenAI/Anthropic AI revenue in 2026 is projected to be only around $8.5 billion, while Amazon’s total capital expenditure for the year is expected to reach $220 billion. Google’s Vertex AI platform revenue in 2026 is estimated at approximately $28.3 billion, yet OpenAI and Anthropic’s combined compute spending during the same period is projected to exceed $35.6 billion. Microsoft’s AI revenue for FY2026 is estimated at approximately $34.5 billion, with corresponding capital expenditures of about $115.9 billion. This analysis has sparked market concerns regarding potential overbuilding of AI data centers and the sustainability of demand, raising questions about whether the three cloud providers should more transparently disclose risks related to customer revenue concentration. As of now, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have not publicly responded.
Analyst: OpenAI and Anthropic May Account for Over 70% of AI Revenue Among the Top 3 Cloud Providers
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Summary
Analyst Ed Zitron estimates that OpenAI and Anthropic could capture over 70% of AI revenue from the top three cloud providers by 2026. AWS is expected to receive 73% from them, with Google and Microsoft following similar trends. The Fear and Greed Index in crypto markets may reflect growing concerns about overbuilding of AI data centers and the sustainability of demand. Top altcoins could face indirect pressure if cloud providers consolidate their AI partnerships.
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