Analyst: NAND Market Negative Rumors Overstated; SanDisk’s Low LTA Price Reflects Strategy

ChainCatcher report: Citrini analyst Jukan has responded to recent bearish notes circulating in the market regarding NAND and negative rumors about QLC pricing negotiations. It is not surprising that SanDisk accepted a price lower than its initial quote when signing a long-term agreement with Meta; SanDisk is the most aggressive NAND manufacturer in pursuing LTA deals, planning to allocate over 50% of its total shipments to such agreements. Naturally, this strategy leads it to accept LTA prices below current quarterly contract rates—this does not imply that “SanDisk cannot seamlessly resell all its orders to North American customers offering higher prices.” Regarding rumors that Chinese module manufacturers were rejected by domestic CSPs when trying to sell eSSDs, Jukan explained that Chinese CSPs have direct procurement channels with YMTC rather than facing insufficient demand. As for the claim that hyperscale cloud providers are pressuring QLC eSSD prices, causing some volumes to go unsold, Jukan believes new cloud providers have sufficient demand to absorb these volumes. Jukan concluded that during periods of underperformance in memory stocks, negative headlines tend to be amplified, but the underlying fundamentals have not materially deteriorated. He reiterates his “bullish stance on memory.” Previously, Jukan stated that DRAM contract prices still have approximately 40% upside potential through the end of 2027 and that HBM supply remains tight; this clarification on NAND further reinforces his overall bullish position on the entire memory sector.