BlockBeats news: At 1:00 AM Beijing time on October 29, the Federal Reserve announced it held rates steady at its October meeting, with the decision passing 10-2 (two Fed officials advocated for a 25-basis-point rate hike). Compared to September, the statement upgraded its assessment of the economy from “moderate” to “strong,” removed the phrase “this policy action will help inflation return to the 2% target,” and instead emphasized the need to gather more information.
Analyst @qinbafrank posted on social media that the Fed’s recent move signals a significant institutional shift. Chair Walsh announced major structural changes during the press conference: starting in 2027, the Fed will hold one meeting per year dedicated solely to macro monetary policy strategy, without interest rate voting or a statement; by 2028, such strategy meetings will increase to two per year, reducing the number of policy meetings accordingly to six. Coupled with the expected outcomes from five working groups to be released by year-end, the analyst believes that reducing the frequency of rate decisions marks the beginning of a broader institutional transformation at the Fed.
On the fundamentals, Wash expressed optimism about the economy, noting that first-half GDP growth was revised upward to 2.4% and that employment conditions were “quite positive.” Regarding financial conditions, Wash acknowledged signs of some tightening and recognized that AI infrastructure investment has been affected by rising interest rates. However, Wash declined to characterize overall financial conditions as “tight,” stating that this supports price stability.
Regarding Wash’s overall statement, the analyst believes he did not clearly explain the specific reason for this pause on rate hikes, only indicating a need to gather more information. Wash’s remark that he “neither wants nor can say financial conditions are tight” leans slightly hawkish, but his simultaneous emphasis that financial conditions are tightening offsets this tone. Overall, @qinbafrank believes Wash’s stance is neutral, falling short of “hawkish pause” intensity; this pause is not a dovish shift, but rather a “consensus of patience” within the hawkish camp.
In addition, analysts emphasize that Powell is establishing a new communication framework—opposing forward guidance, not submitting dot plots, and not pre-judging meeting outcomes. This signals the Fed’s deliberate intention to narrow its short-term intervention in financial markets and place greater emphasis on data dependence. Regarding whether to raise rates in December, @qinbafrank believes it first depends on inflation data, which in turn is influenced by the situation in the Middle East; given its data-driven approach, Powell finds it difficult to provide clear forward guidance at this time.