As Anthropic moves toward a potential $2 trillion market capitalization on Nasdaq, a research firm has valued the artificial intelligence company at just $150 billion, saying Wall Street is about to face an “unprecedented test of investor gullibility.”
On Tuesday, independent financial research firm New Constructs stated in a report that Anthropic’s upcoming offering will be “the most absurd IPO of 2026.”
To reach its target valuation, the firm estimates that Anthropic would need to generate profits twice as high as NVIDIA’s earnings over the past year—NVIDIA being the world’s most valuable technology company, which posted over $190 billion in net profit over the last four quarters. Meanwhile, according to Reuters, citing a leaked copy of the company’s prospectus, Anthropic reported $4.6 billion in revenue for 2025 but incurred a net loss of $42 billion.
New Constructs believes that Anthropic's growing operating losses, combined with new competition from numerous open-source models, lead them to conclude: "We do not believe Anthropic has a viable business model."
The institution wrote: "Since the emergence of open-source models, it has been clear that proprietary models struggle to achieve profitability."
David Trainer, founder and CEO of New Constructs, is known on Wall Street as a bearish commentator on IPOs. He has also been right in the past.
New Constructs previously called WeWork "the most absurd IPO of 2019" before its planned public offering. At the time, the co-working company had a private valuation of $47 billion, but it withdrew its IPO six weeks after the New Constructs report was released due to weak demand and intense criticism over its financial condition. WeWork filed for bankruptcy in 2023.
New Constructs writes: “Although Anthropic’s contribution to society far exceeds that of WeWork, its IPO at a $2 trillion valuation carries significantly greater risks and could become a greater plundering of the U.S. capital markets.” The firm added that the purpose of this IPO is not to create wealth for public market investors, but to provide liquidity for the company’s Wall Street backers.
Anthropic did not respond to requests for comment.
New Constructs also shorted Allbirds’ 2021 IPO. The footwear company went public on Nasdaq with a first-day market capitalization of $4.1 billion. Earlier this year, it sold its assets to American Exchange Group for approximately $39 million and subsequently shifted its focus to AI.
The trainer’s firm has also made some incorrect judgments. Its most absurd pick for a 2020 IPO was DoorDash, which the firm at the time compared to WeWork, stating that it was “equally disadvantaged.”
However, DoorDash has performed well in the public markets. The stock surged on its first day of trading in December 2020, pushing the company’s market capitalization above $60 billion. Since then, this figure has risen to $83 billion.
In a 2021 interview with CNBC, Trainer admitted that "crazy things happen," and New Constructs does not always get it right.
He said at the time: "I can't let this bother me. I have to stick to what I believe is right."
Anthropic has not yet publicly filed its prospectus, so New Constructs has not seen the actual filing documents. However, the firm cites data that has already been reported, including a New York Times article stating that, as of September, the company is projected to achieve annual revenue of $100 billion by the end of 2026.
In late July, Anthropic stated that its annualized revenue run rate increased sevenfold year-over-year to $65 billion.
New Constructs' report also notes that Anthropic believes AI could pose a "catastrophic or existential risk" to humanity, another reason investors should avoid this IPO.
New Constructs wrote: “Although we were not among the fortunate few granted selective access to Anthropic’s S-1 filing, the leaked financial data reports are sufficient for us to assess the significant risks involved in investing in this IPO.”