BlockBeats news: On January 10, analyst Biraajmaan Tamuly stated that long-term holders (LTHs) of Bitcoin experienced the most aggressive selling phase on record in 2025. Although the scale of their selling triggered market turbulence, on-chain data analysis suggests that this pressure may be easing, potentially outlining the contours of the next upward price cycle for BTC.
Data shows that the number of bitcoins dormant on the blockchain for at least two years will experience a significant change in 2025. Nearly $300 billion worth of bitcoins that have been inactive for over a year are re-entering circulation. Between November 15 and December 14, 2025, over the course of 30 days, one of the most intense selling periods by long-term holders in more than five years occurred.
Tamuly explained that since 2019, sharp reductions in long-term holder supply rarely occur in isolation. They typically appear during phases where the Bitcoin trend has already shown signs of weakness—whether a bullish trend is nearing exhaustion or the market is undergoing a structural transition. Price weakness became evident in October, but the most intense selling followed afterward—the largest 30-day distribution peak in history occurred in November 2025, with 1.14 million BTC. This sequence suggests the market is experiencing a "crash-style sell-off" rather than an orderly profit-taking, signaling a cycle reset rather than a continuation of the previous trend.
Since December, the supply of long-term held (LTH) Bitcoin has stopped declining and has stabilized at around 13.6 million BTC, while Bitcoin's price has entered a consolidation range. The long-term/short-term holder supply ratio provides further confirmation. Whenever this ratio drops to -0.5 or lower, Bitcoin either enters a bottoming phase or rebounds to new highs within weeks. In December last year, the ratio fell to approximately -0.53, followed by a narrowing of price volatility and a stagnation of momentum, which aligns with the characteristics of a cycle reset rather than a continuation of the trend. The consolidation during the first and second quarters of this year may constitute a bottoming period, and any sustained upward move is more likely to occur afterward, potentially unfolding in the third quarter.