AMD stock rise could lead to near-zero capital costs for Meta and OpenAI on GPUs

Huo Xing Cai Jing reports that on August 4, the semiconductor and AI independent research firm SemiAnalysis stated that AMD reached agreements with Meta and OpenAI at the end of last year and early this year to provide performance-linked warrants. These warrants will vest based on the procurement and deployment of up to 6 GW of AMD Instinct GPUs, as well as whether AMD’s stock price crosses multiple thresholds, with the highest threshold set at $600. AMD’s stock price has risen from approximately $200 at the beginning of 2026 to its current level of around $500 to $600. Assuming a roughly linear relationship between stock price and warrant vesting, and assuming full deployment of the 6 GW capacity, Meta’s and OpenAI’s capital cost per GPU-hour would decrease from approximately $2.15 and $2.50 to about $1.60 and $1.75, respectively. SemiAnalysis noted that if AMD’s stock price rises to the $600–$700 range, the capital cost for these two companies—specifically for GPUs alone—could effectively drop to zero. If AMD continues to improve its software stack, secures more large-scale customer orders, and drives its stock price above $1,000, the entire cluster capital cost—including servers, networking, and CPUs—could theoretically approach zero.