Amazon Rises 15%, Apple Drops 7.4% as U.S. Stocks Swing Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Article by: Tide Research

On the last trading day of July, the U.S. stock market saw two figures not witnessed in many years: Amazon surged 15% in a single day, marking its largest one-day gain since 2012, while Apple closed down 7.4% on the same day, recording its largest one-day decline since April last year. The U.S. bond market was equally turbulent, with the 10-year yield rising over 30 basis points in a single month—the largest July increase since 2005—and the 30-year yield climbing to 5.27%, its highest level since 2007. Over the weekend, Trump unexpectedly announced the cancellation of a military strike against Iran, causing oil prices to plunge more than 6% at Monday’s open; however, Iran immediately denied having requested a ceasefire, leaving the true direction of events still shrouded in uncertainty.

The S&P 500 rose 0.70% to 7,489.72. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.53% to 52,485.03. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1% to 25,373.853. The China Internet Index closed up 1.47%, rising 8.09% for the week and 12.84% for July.

Amazon was the absolute star of the day, closing up 15%—its largest single-day gain since 2012—with a market capitalization nearing $2.93 trillion. Revenue growth for its AWS cloud business reached its highest level in 18 quarters, and the company raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance. Management indicated that the imbalance between AI computing demand and supply will persist, with the shortfall potentially lasting until 2028.

Apple’s performance stood in stark contrast, closing down 7.4%—its largest single-day decline since April 2025—as markets clearly rejected the company’s relatively conservative guidance for the upcoming quarter. Memory chip stocks also underperformed, with the U.S. memory chip index falling 1.58% and recording a weekly decline of 5.30%; the index is down nearly 30% for July. SK Hynix dropped 3.54%, while Micron fell 5.90%.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose approximately 6 basis points last Friday to 4.74%, surging over 30 basis points for July alone—the largest July increase since 2005. The 30-year yield also climbed, reaching 5.271%, the highest level since July 2007.

Spot gold fell 1.27% to $4,051.30 per ounce, closing the week roughly flat. Spot silver dropped 1.89% to $57.8705 per ounce. WTI crude oil rose 1.29% to $84.67 per barrel, but for the week, it still declined 5.19%; however, it surged 22.23% for the entire month of July. Brent crude oil increased 1.22% to $90.12 per barrel, rising 23.53% for July. Bitcoin opened at $64,724.03, up 1.3%, then retreated to $63,652.09 during morning trading. Ethereum opened at $1,917.16, up 0.4%, and later dipped to $1,877.52 in morning trading.

The situation in the Middle East this weekend has been like a rollercoaster. Previously, the United States and Israel had planned to launch the "most intense" bombing yet against Iran’s energy infrastructure, targeting power plants and refineries, and even discussed cutting off electricity to Tehran. Iran, in turn, had already prepared a comprehensive counterstrike plan targeting Israel’s critical infrastructure and U.S. energy facilities in the Middle East.

Just as tensions were escalating, Trump suddenly reversed his stance on social media, claiming that Iran and several Middle Eastern countries had proactively reached out seeking a temporary halt to hostilities, and that both sides had agreed on a broad framework centered on restoring normal passage through the strait and putting nuclear concerns behind them. The Saudi Crown Prince had also previously called U.S. officials, urging de-escalation.

However, the credibility of this news was quickly questioned. Iranian officials firmly denied having requested a ceasefire, with the Iranian News Agency citing sources who said claims of reopening the Strait of Hormuz were pure rumors, and no agreement had been reached between the two sides. Israel’s Prime Minister reportedly learned of the U.S. decision to halt the strike only through Trump’s social media post, admitting he experienced “several hours of complete information vacuum.” On Sunday, an LNG vessel carrying Qatari cargo was hit by unidentified projectiles while passing through the Strait of Hormuz, rendering its engine room inoperable and leaving the ship dead in the water—though no injuries were reported. At the start of Asian trading on Monday, as news of the canceled strike spread, Brent crude prices plunged as much as 6.7%.

Another significant but overlooked event occurred last week: for the first time ever, the U.S. Treasury directly intervened in currency markets, instructing the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to enlist several Wall Street banks to sell euros and buy yen—coordinating with Japan and South Korea in a joint intervention unseen in nearly thirty years. Analysts believe the underlying motive goes far beyond simply stabilizing exchange rates; it reflects deep concern that further strain on Japan and South Korea’s stock and bond markets could trigger cascading pressures along the AI supply chain.

The U.S. dollar fell 1% against the Japanese yen on Friday, breaking below the 158 level and posting its largest intraday decline since May.

On the same day, South Korea’s market saw a significant reversal in capital flows: on July 31, the KOSPI attracted a net foreign inflow of KRW 7.2 trillion—the highest on record—while domestic pension funds shifted from net selling to net buying. Citigroup believes the headwinds facing Korean equities have turned into tailwinds and maintains its 3,000-point target.

The Situational fund managed by hedge fund "AI Oracle" Leopold suffered a 67% asset collapse and a run in July, prompting Citadel to acquire the $16 billion position at a discount of over 10%, effectively absorbing the largest forced selling pressure in the market. Tech stocks in the U.S., China, and South Korea subsequently rebounded with relief. Leopold has personally written to investors, acknowledging full responsibility and pledging to no longer borrow from banks to leverage his positions.

Goldman Sachs analyzed July’s price action and concluded that, while the index appeared calm on the surface, it underwent a violent unwinding of positions. Trades heavily crowded in AI and momentum were forcibly deleveraged, and the market’s focus is shifting from “how good the story is” to “whether you can actually make money.” The overall bull trend remains intact, but the days of profiting by simply buying without thinking are over.

On the memory chip front, Kioxia has taken the lead by announcing a buyback program of up to 800 billion yen and setting a total return target of 50%, a first for the memory industry. Nomura expects South Korea’s major memory manufacturers to follow suit with historically significant buybacks. Samsung Electronics’ long-term contract terms have been revealed to heavily favor suppliers, limiting price reduction potential while leaving little ceiling on price increases; DRAM and NAND spot prices are expected to continue rebounding ahead of the fourth-quarter seasonal peak.

The biggest question in this week’s market is the upcoming Fed Jackson Hole symposium in August. Morgan Stanley has identified a pattern: Powell’s strategy of “clear goals, ambiguous path” is intentional. He’s happy to repeatedly say that inflation remains high and will eventually reach target, but he won’t reveal a single detail about how or when he’ll act. If upcoming inflation data continues to surprise to the upside, the likelihood of a more hawkish stance at the September meeting will only rise.

This week will also see the release of manufacturing PMI data from China, Japan, South Korea, the United States, the Eurozone, and the United Kingdom.