It appears that September is on track to start with history making a comeback.
Three years ago, Bitcoin [BTC], which belonged to the FTX/Alameda complex, was seized. Today, a small portion of this Bitcoin has changed hands for the second time, thereby re-entering circulation and provoking market frenzies about the future of the broader Bitcoin market.
Arkham Intelligence has tracked this transaction. Meanwhile, Lookonchain highlighted the movement. As per the tweet, the wallet “FTX Alameda Seized Funds” sent 24.41 BTC ($1.92 million) to another wallet.
Naturally, the influence of this deal could be a sign of Bitcoin’s first real test of this cycle.
From a technical standpoint, BTC is ready to close the month of August in green, thus ending the four-year-long narrative of negative returns for the month. The main argument for this scenario is that the cryptocurrency managed to rally by 25% this month, which is enough for BTC to deliver the best monthly ROI since the 2017 cycle, pointing to strong momentum heading into September.
In short, increased FOMO throughout the rest of the Q3 has the capacity to offset potential selling pressure from the Alameda-related activity. Moreover, if the demand is indeed there, it might very well act as an inflection point for Bitcoin, setting the tone for the rest of the H2 cycle.
Alameda BTC transfer brings Bitcoin’s resilience back into focus
The timing of the Alameda-related Bitcoin selling could make the biggest difference.
In terms of the institutional side, BTC ETFs continue to post daily net inflows, with $232 million recorded on the 26th of August, marking the eighth straight day of inflows. This pushed total monthly ETF flows back above $3 billion, recovering pre-October crash levels and demonstrating the ongoing institutional demand.
The result? Bitcoin resilience was reinforced. Following a powerful rebound of nearly 23% from the lows of last week, BTC is now testing the $78k level. While the bears managed to benefit from the short selling activity on Alameda, this weakness seems to be largely compensated by Bitcoin’s dominance. As the chart below shows, while BTC is negative on the intraday chart, BTC.D is positive and remains above the 60% level, which highlights its relative strength compared to the other alternative assets.
Against this backdrop, institutional flows are likely to stay bullish.
Meanwhile, the FOMO around the August gains could bolster the setup. All taken together, it should enable Bitcoin to carry the bullish trend well through the rest of Q3. In this respect, the recent Alameda move could turn out as more bullish than bearish, given that the institutional flows would absorb the selling pressure.
Final Summary
- Alameda-linked BTC movement could test Bitcoin, but strong ETF inflows and BTC dominance above 60% support the bulls.
- August’s gains could fuel more FOMO, helping Bitcoin absorb selling pressure and maintain its Q3 momentum.