AI 'Stock God' Fund Reveals Q2 Holdings Before Collapse

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)

At 12:00 AM Beijing time on August 15, Leopold Aschenbrenner, previously dubbed the "AI Oracle" by the market, officially disclosed the 13F quarterly holdings report for his fund, Situational Awareness LP.

• Odaily Note: The so-called 13F is a quarterly disclosure document mandated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for investment managers with assets under management exceeding $1 billion. The SEC requires funds that meet the disclosure criteria to file this document within 45 days after the end of each calendar quarter, detailing their holdings as of the end of the previous quarter, including U.S.-listed stocks, call/put options, convertible bonds, and specific ETF positions.

Yet just a few weeks ago, Situational Awareness LP experienced its darkest moment—suffering significant losses due to a sharp correction in AI-related stocks combined with high leverage, forcing the fund to liquidate a large portion of its public market positions and sell most of its stock portfolio at a discount to Citadel, led by Ken Griffin.

• Odaily Note: For details, see “The Fall of Wall Street’s ‘AI God,’ Killed by Leverage”.

Although the temporary downfall of the "AI Stock Guru" has become a fact, this belated 13F quarterly holdings report remains significant for the market—it fully reveals the fund’s static holdings just before its collapse (as of June 30), in other words, the market has finally gained a零距离 window to observe how Situational Awareness LP reached massive losses.

In this article, Odaily will guide readers through an analysis of Situational Awareness LP’s Q1 13F portfolio structure and examine the changes from the previous quarter to uncover the true story behind Situational Awareness LP’s losses.

In March this year, we first introduced Leopold Aschenbrenner in the article "SBF's Sidekick: Turned $225 Million into $5.5 Billion in One Year."

Leopold Aschenbrenner worked at Future Fund, a subsidiary of FTX, in 2022 and remained with the team until FTX’s collapse. In 2024, Leopold Aschenbrenner authored a 165-page whitepaper titled “Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead” and subsequently founded the fund of the same name, Situational Awareness LP, where he serves as Chief Investment Officer.

Situational Awareness LP focuses on investment opportunities in the AI industry chain; the fund's publicly disclosed holdings in Q4 2024 were “merely” $225 million; by February of this year, in its disclosed Q4 2025 holdings, this figure had surged to $5.5 billion; and by May of this year, when its Q1 holdings were disclosed, the number had risen to $13.7 billion... Although these figures are now outdated, the fund's total nominal holdings in its newly disclosed Q2 report have reached $20.2 billion.

• Odaily Note: It should be noted that in the reporting methodology of U.S. 13F filings, the market value of options assets is typically shown as the "notional value" of the underlying stocks, rather than the actual premium cost paid by the fund.

With explosive investment returns, Leopold Aschenbrenner and Situational Awareness LP gained widespread fame, becoming one of the most watched AI investment indicators online, with Leopold Aschenbrenner being dubbed the "AI Warren Buffett" by a market eager to create icons.

As of June 30, Situational Awareness LP disclosed 26 holdings in its 13F filing, with a total notional value of approximately $20.24 billion. A closer look at this "ledger before the collapse" reveals that the fund had heavily concentrated positions betting on the continued surge in AI infrastructure.

The most striking aspect of the portfolio allocation is the heavy concentration in SanDisk (SNDK) and Micron (MU)—with holdings of approximately $5.674 billion, accounting for 28.0%, and $5.574 billion, accounting for 27.5%, respectively. Together, these two companies represent over $11.2 billion, or roughly 55.5% of the entire portfolio.

In other words, just before the fund collapsed, Leopold Aschenbrenner had already allocated more than half of his public market positions to a single bet on memory chips.

Digging deeper, the investment logic behind Situational Awareness LP becomes even clearer: Bloom Energy holds approximately $1.899 billion, betting on the power demand behind AI data centers; TSMC holds about $1.265 billion, aligned with advanced manufacturing processes; Nebius holds around $1.233 billion, alongside CoreWeave, Core Scientific, Applied Digital, and IREN, further covering AI cloud computing, data centers, and energy infrastructure...

Thus, although Situational Awareness LP holds more than twenty different stocks (including options), when reclassified by industry chain, most of its positions essentially reflect a single core conviction—that demand for AI computing power will continue to surge, and the entire产业链 of chips, storage, computing power, electricity, and data centers will continue to benefit as a result.

This also means that Situational Awareness LP is essentially going all-in on the sustained boom of AI infrastructure development. In favorable conditions, this strategy can indeed deliver far greater upside elasticity than a single stock; however, conversely, when AI infrastructure-related assets experience simultaneous pullbacks, risks previously diversified across different companies can rapidly resonate together.

In particular, when "high concentration" is combined with "high leverage," especially under leverage, it can quickly lead to a liquidity crisis—the very scenario we witnessed a few weeks ago.

Before this quarter's 13F report was released, I had a question.

In its Q1 portfolio disclosure released in May, Situational Awareness LP clearly expressed heightened caution regarding the overheated short-term rally in chips and storage—by the end of Q1, it held put options on leading chip and storage companies (including SMH, NVDA, ORCL, AVGO, AMD, ASML, among others) with a notional value exceeding $8 billion, accounting for more than 60% of the fund’s total notional exposure. Had this position been maintained, the subsequent market decline should have aligned precisely with Leopold Aschenbrenner’s prediction. So why did it end so disastrously?

It wasn’t until today, after the new 13F filing was released and the position changes of Situational Awareness LP were observed, that this question was finally answered—Leopold Aschenbrenner personally cut the safety rope he had once tied himself.

In Q2's position report, the "top reductions" list for Situational Awareness LP is striking—all chip and storage put options were fully liquidated. SMH Put (-14.94%), NVDA Bear ETF Put (-11.47%), ORCL Put (-7.84%), AVGO Put (-7.36%), AMD Put (-7.09%), TSM Put (-3.91%), ASML Put (-3.61%)...

These hedging positions, which previously formed the portfolio’s risk floor, were entirely abandoned by Situational Awareness LP in Q2. Meanwhile, the call options on MU and SNDK held in Q1 were closed (-3.09%, -2.84%), replaced by direct equity holdings—MU rose to $55.74 billion, becoming the second-largest position, while SNDK climbed to $56.74 billion, securing the top spot.

The "Top Buys" list further reveals capital flows — in addition to the two storage stocks mentioned above, TSMC ADR (+6.19%), Nebius (+6.09%, new entry), STMicroelectronics STM (+2.89%, new entry), SharonAI (+2.12%, new entry), and Keel Infrastructure (+0.75%, new entry) have all entered the portfolio. From European semiconductor foundries to Russian-backed AI cloud providers, from power infrastructure to Bitcoin mining companies, Leopold Aschenbrenner completed a complete shift in Q2 from a "hedged portfolio" to an "unprotected pure long position."

The cost of this shift became starkly apparent by the end of July. When the AI sector experienced a systematic correction, the put options used as insurance in Q1 could have partially absorbed the shock—but by Q2, the fund had no short protection whatsoever. A fund of tens of billions in size, with highly concentrated positions and uniform directional bets, amplified by leverage, proved far more vulnerable than the market had imagined.

Although 13F does not disclose leverage ratios, from this portfolio adjustment record of “closing put positions and maximizing long positions,” we can already see Situational Awareness LP’s most misjudged move.

The rest of the story is already well known to everyone.

After entering July, the AI and storage sectors experienced systematic selling, severely impacting the positions wagered on by Situational Awareness LP, including its two major holdings, Micron and SanDisk. As of the closing price on June 30, by July 29, rumors of a liquidity crisis for Situational Awareness LP began to spread; Micron (MU) had fallen from $1,154 to $739, a decline of approximately 35.9%; SanDisk (SNDK) dropped from $2,274 to $1,016, a decline of 55.3%.

Under the amplification of leverage, these declines rapidly consumed the entire safety cushion of Situational Awareness LP. In the end, Ken Griffin picked the fruits of the "AI Stock God"'s once-glittering track record at a discount.

Fortunately, Leopold Aschenbrenner is still young, with a long life ahead. Most importantly, he has retained his most crucial asset—the private company investment portfolio, including equity in Anthropic. For a 25-year-old investor, this may have been his first major setback in the capital markets, but it doesn’t have to be the end of his investment journey.