AI models estimate a 76% probability that Bitcoin's signature scheme will be broken within 20 years.

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Release Time: 2026/10/12 03:56:57

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Summary

AI + crypto news from October 11, 2026, shows four AI models estimating the risk of Bitcoin’s digital signatures being compromised. Willy Woo shared findings indicating a 1.3% chance within two years. Over a 20-year horizon, ChatGPT-6 Astra estimated 76%, Claude 66%, Grok 60%, and Deepseek 34%. All models identified quantum computing as the primary long-term threat. No classical or AI-driven attacks on secp256k1 have been verified. Bitcoin news highlights no immediate risks but warns of potential future vulnerabilities.

Odaily Planet Daily report: On October 11, on-chain analyst Willy Woo shared AI-generated estimates indicating a 1.3% probability that Bitcoin's digital signatures will be cracked within the next two years. The estimates consider quantum computing, as well as classical mathematics or AI-assisted cryptanalysis.

Subsequently, researchers used approximately four AI models to evaluate the probability of Bitcoin's ECDSA and Schnorr signatures being practically broken within 2, 5, 10, and 20 years. ChatGPT-6 Astra estimated a 20-year probability of approximately 76%, Claude around 66%, Grok 60%, and Deepseek 34%.

All four models regard quantum computing as a long-term primary threat, with an estimated probability of 0% to 2% over the next two years. The models also note that no practical classical cryptanalytic attacks against secp256k1 currently exist, and improvements in AI capabilities have not yet resulted in any validated cryptanalytic breakthroughs. (Bitcoin.com News)

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