79% of Prediction-Market Users Lost Money in Past Year, Survey Reveals

A new U.S. survey suggests most people who use prediction markets walk away losing money — and many are borrowing to do it. Key findings from the BadCredit.org poll of 1,000 U.S. adults: - 15% said they had used a prediction-market platform (examples named by the survey: Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). - Among self-reported users, 79% said they lost money over the past year. - 27% of users reported losses greater than $500; 9% lost more than $1,000. Only 21% reported no losses. - 51% of users said they funded bets with borrowed money (credit cards, personal loans, etc.). Losses were higher among borrowers: 88% of those who used debt lost money, versus 69% of non-borrowers. Consumer finance expert Erica Sandberg warned that borrowing to bet multiplies the risk: interest and repayment obligations can turn a loss into a much larger financial hit. “Although tempting, borrowing money to place a bet is a universally bad idea,” she said, urging users to only wager cash they can afford to lose. Why users play - Income-driven reasons dominated: 44% said they started to earn extra income, and 9% said they needed money — a combined 53% motivated by financial need. - Other motives: entertainment/curiosity 27%, social-media content 10%, friends/family 7%, and 3% said conventional investing felt inaccessible. - On belief in outcomes, 30% of all adults said prediction markets could realistically improve their finances (37% of men vs. 25% of women). Usage also skewed male: 24% of men had tried a platform vs. 9% of women. Survey caveats BadCredit.org’s results are self-reported. The study did not publish platform-level account records or calculate verified net returns; it used an online panel with raw, unweighted responses and reports a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points for the full sample (about ±8 points for the smaller user subgroup). Market context: big volumes, concentrated profits The survey comes amid surging prediction-market activity and scrutiny of who actually profits. Market data published Aug. 3 showed combined taker notional volume across Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket’s international venue reached $50.59 billion in July — up 7.8% from a revised $46.95 billion in June. Kalshi accounted for about $37.7 billion (roughly 74.5%); Polymarket US grew to $5 billion; Polymarket’s international venue recorded $7.9 billion (down 26%). Note: those figures represent taker notional volume — a contract can trade many times, so volume is not equivalent to customer deposits, platform revenue, or net trader profits/losses. Event-driven spikes such as the World Cup drove activity: Chainalysis estimated ~400,000 wallets generated $5.7 billion during the five-week tournament, claiming about 63% of prediction-market activity for that period. Open interest across Kalshi and the two Polymarket venues fell during July from roughly $2 billion to about $1.2 billion as World Cup positions settled, even as monthly turnover hit a record. Academic and platform-level research has found trading profits concentrate among a tiny share of accounts. An academic study analyzing 1.72 million Polymarket accounts and some $13.76 billion in volume (covering 2023–2025) classified only 3.14% of accounts as “skilled winners.” Skilled traders and market makers — fewer than 3.5% of accounts — captured more than 30% of gains, while 67% of accounts were classified as unlucky or unskilled and absorbed the platform’s total losses. Regulatory debate heats up U.S. prediction markets operate amid overlapping federal derivatives oversight and state gambling rules. Kalshi is a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-designated contract market; QCX (operator of Polymarket US) also appears on the CFTC’s designated markets list. Still, states argue some event contracts — especially those tied to sports — resemble conventional wagers and require gambling licenses. Platforms counter that the Commodity Exchange Act places event contracts under federal jurisdiction. Regulators and industry groups have been vocal: the House Agriculture Committee held hearings on customer protection and market integrity after gaming associations urged Congress to limit sports-linked contracts. The CFTC has told regulated platforms to avoid presenting contracts using American-style gambling odds (+150, -200, etc.) and warned against deceptive marketing. Meanwhile, state litigation continues with conflicting early court decisions, so customer access and product availability vary by jurisdiction. Bottom line The BadCredit.org poll paints a cautionary picture: most reported users lost money over the past year, and a large share used debt to fund bets — amplifying financial risk. That aligns with broader evidence that profits in prediction markets are unevenly distributed, even as trading volumes and interest surge. For crypto and prediction-market participants, the findings underscore the importance of risk management, avoiding borrowed funds, and recognizing that these markets can be costly for the majority of retail traders.