The article analyzes the trend of 3D NAND flash technology advancing toward higher stack layers and the resulting industry inflection point of molybdenum replacing tungsten.Article author and source: 36Kr
Today, we bring you the AI Industry全景透视 series. This episode features 3D NAND, analyzed with AlphaEngine.
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The star of this issue is 3D NAND, which we analyze using the professional AI investment research tool AlphaEngine (AlphaClaw).
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(1) 3D NAND: Trade layers for density
NAND refers to NAND Flash memory, named so because its cell structure in series is electrically equivalent to a "NAND gate."
3D NAND is a flash memory technology that stacks memory cells vertically, differing from traditional 2D NAND, which arranges memory cells in a single horizontal layer.
At its core, when planar scaling approaches physical limits, development shifts "upward," trading layers for density.
The path for 3D NAND stacking has been clearly defined, progressing from 200 layers to 375 layers, then to 480 layers, and now to 604 layers. With each upward step, the word lines become thinner and deeper, creating a demand to replace tungsten with molybdenum.
(2) The transition from tungsten to molybdenum for word line metal has become a confirmed trend.
The word line is a horizontal control line inside a 3D NAND flash memory chip that connects the control gates of memory cells in each layer, responsible for selecting and operating specific rows of memory cells.
For example, imagine 3D NAND as a high-rise building with hundreds of floors, each floor housing countless "storage units."
The word line acts as the "switch" for each layer; when you want to read or write data from a specific layer, the word line powers that layer to select it.
As the number of stacked layers increases, the word lines become longer (L increases) and thinner (A decreases).
Figure: Summary by AlphaClaw
Tungsten exhibits a sharp increase in resistance at these extreme dimensions, leading to signal delay and heating issues, whereas molybdenum has lower resistivity and does not require an additional barrier layer, making it the inevitable choice for high-level stacking.
SK Hynix completed production validation of its 375-layer 3D NAND on June 11, with plans for full-scale mass production at the Cheongju M15 facility by year-end. The industry inflection point of replacing tungsten with molybdenum is not just on the horizon—it is already being realized.
Figure: Summary by AlphaClaw
(3) Semiconductor-grade molybdenum does not cause aggregate supply shocks; focus on the premium for high purity.
The molybdenum used in 3D NAND is ultra-high-purity molybdenum powder (purity above 5N), a completely different product form from industrial-grade molybdenum, and the two are essentially not interchangeable.
The word line manufacturing for 3D NAND employs a "replacement gate" process: first, a sacrificial layer (SiN) is etched away to leave extremely narrow and deep cavities, then metal is deposited into these cavities using vapor-phase precursors, making molybdenum precursors the primary beneficiary.
The global market for semiconductor-grade molybdenum precursors is currently very small, but is expected to enter a phase of rapid scaling between 2027 and 2028.
The 2030E semiconductor sector adds approximately 334 tons of new molybdenum demand, which is negligible compared to the global molybdenum supply of 3 million tons, but represents a substantial increase relative to existing high-purity molybdenum powder production capacity (~5,000 tons per year).
Figure: Summary by AlphaClaw
Globally, fewer than three to five suppliers have been officially certified by Samsung and SK Hynix; pricing will decouple from bulk ferromolybdenum and shift toward a premium model.
Therefore, the true logic behind "replacing tungsten with molybdenum" is high-purity premium plus supply certification barriers, not total volume impact.
(4) Low supply elasticity suggests molybdenum prices are likely to continue rising.
Approximately 40% of global molybdenum supply comes as a byproduct of copper mines in South America (Peru and Chile), 25–30% comes from independent molybdenum mines in China, and the remainder comes from North America.
The molybdenum production from by-product mines is determined by the primary copper mining and processing plan, not by molybdenum prices. This makes the supply elasticity of molybdenum structurally significantly lower than that of most other non-ferrous metals.
From January to April 2026, due to energy shortages, China’s imports of molybdenum concentrate from Peru—which accounts for approximately 10% of global production—declined by 16% year-over-year. During the same period, major South American copper miners lowered their 2026 copper production guidance, directly impacting associated molybdenum output.
From 2026 to 2028, there will be no significant new capacity additions, with primary reliance on two ultra-large projects: the Shapinggou Molybdenum Mine and the Caosiyao Molybdenum Mine.
Shapinggou Molybdenum Mine is Asia's largest molybdenum deposit, with resources of 2.1 to 2.46 million tons. Jiumo Corporation holds a 34% interest. Environmental assessment is expected to be completed in 2025, with commercial production targeted for 2029, yielding approximately 7,500 tons of molybdenum metal annually at full capacity. The Caosiyao Molybdenum Mine will not become operational until after 2028.
From the demand side, the traditional steel sector remains stable, while the semiconductor industry adds new demand; institutions generally expect molybdenum prices to surpass the 2022 high of 6,500 yuan per tonne.
Illustration by AlphaClaw
(5) Market Landscape and Key Targets
Illustration by AlphaClaw
Yake Technology:
Finalized price increases with SK Hynix; effective July 1, Mo precursors will see a general price hike of over 20%, with other customers (Samsung, YMTC, CXMT) expected to follow suit.
Having collaborated with Samsung and SK Hynix for many years, quality assessments and factory audits are now underway; the first domestic prototype of the SFS delivery system for solid-state precursor materials has been completed.
The current revenue scale of Mo precursors is small, but if SKH/Samsung validates and begins mass procurement, combined with price increases, Mo precursors could generate hundreds of millions of yuan in additional revenue by 2027–2028, with high profit elasticity.
Other notable assets are listed in the table below:
Figure: Summary by AlphaClaw
Note: This report is provided solely for educational purposes to help you understand the company and its industry, and should not be construed as investment advice.