3.14% of Polymarket traders account for 30% of profits, while 67% of users bear all the losses.

ChainCatcher report, according to The Block, a new academic paper analyzing all Polymarket trades from 2023 to 2025 concluded that only 3.14% of accounts were classified as “skilled winners,” capable of consistently accurately predicting short-term price movements and final outcomes. These skilled traders, combined with market makers, contributed over 30% of the platform’s total revenue. The paper also found that only 12% of profitable accounts belonged to the high-skill trader group, while approximately 60% of “lucky winners” turned into losers in another sample test. Accounts classified as unsuccessful due to bad luck or poor skill accounted for 67% of total accounts and bore the platform’s entire net loss. The paper was co-authored by Roberto Gómez-Cram, Yunhan Guo, and Howard Kung from London Business School, and Theis Ingerslev Jensen from Yale University, covering 1.72 million accounts, over 210,000 markets, and a total trading volume of approximately $13.76 billion.