2026-10-20 Jin10 Futures Breakfast: Shanxi Coking Coal Mines Resume Production, 48 Mines Still Closed

Review today's market trends and stay on top of market dynamics. Good morning, listeners. Today is Tuesday, October 20, 2026. Welcome to Futures Morning Rush. Futures Morning Rush — the top choice for millions of futures professionals!

Female Mandarin versionDownload MP3

1. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange plans to introduce a series of new measures to support enterprises in participating in international markets.

2. CME Group will launch tungsten futures, with trading to begin no later than the beginning of the first quarter of 2027.

3. The Guangxi Regional Meteorological Bureau and the Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs jointly issued a 10-day drought disaster risk warning for sugarcane.

4. CSRC: Fully address multiple unexpected external risk challenges.

5. The bonded inventory of natural rubber samples in Qingdao has reached its lowest level in nearly five years.

6. National Bureau of Statistics: The gross domestic product grew by 4.6% year-over-year in the first three quarters of this year.

7. National Bureau of Statistics: From January to September 2026, nationwide real estate development investment amounted to 5.3364 trillion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 20.6%.

8. A strong typhoon increases the short-term shipping risk for Philippine nickel mines.

9. AgRural: Soybean planting in Brazil reaches 26%, with rainfall aiding field operations.

10. The number of restarted coking coal mines in Shanxi continues to rise, with the number of suspended mines decreasing to 48.

11. Iran warns it could expand the blockade to the Suez Canal.

12. U.S. Department of Energy: Plans to convert the sanctioned tanker into a compliant vessel for transporting unsanctioned crude oil.

1. Zhu Hexin, Vice Governor of the People's Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, stated that recently, building on the improved effectiveness of existing policies, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange plans to introduce a series of new measures: a comprehensive package of facilitation policies for current account transactions to better meet the diverse settlement needs of foreign trade enterprises; and a comprehensive package of optimized policies for capital account foreign exchange management to better meet enterprises’ cross-border investment, financing, and fund allocation needs.

2. According to the Securities Times, CCI Chairman Wu Qing, speaking at the opening ceremony of the 2026 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting, stated that the CCI is fully implementing the national "15th Five-Year Plan" and the new "Nine Measures for the Capital Market," proactively addressing multiple unexpected external risk challenges, and advancing risk prevention, strengthened regulation, and high-quality development in an integrated manner. Market infrastructure systems are gradually improving, the full-chain regulatory framework is continuously being strengthened, and comprehensive reforms in financing and investment are steadily progressing. The capital market is evolving toward innovation, optimizing its structure, and fostering a healthier ecosystem, effectively delivering returns to investors and powerfully supporting the high-quality development of the economy and society.

3. People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng announced a series of upcoming policy measures by the PBOC, including establishing a liquidity support tool to address large redemptions by non-bank institutions, expanding the scope of eligible institutions for the Standing Lending Facility, facilitating the implementation of bond market connectivity, simplifying offshore financial institutions’ ability to conduct RMB buy-sell transactions in the domestic foreign exchange market, and issuing guidelines to provide financial support for the development of international science and technology innovation centers such as Beijing (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei). The People's Bank of China will also respond to market demands by enhancing high-quality policy supply and advancing the internationalization of the RMB.

4. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of October 19, 2026, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Rate Index (Europe Route) stood at 2154.77 points, a decrease of 4.9% compared to the previous period.

5. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, preliminary calculations show that the country's GDP for the first three quarters amounted to 10,710,710 million yuan, representing a 4.6% year-over-year growth at constant prices. The total retail sales of consumer goods from January to September reached 37,000,100 million yuan, up 1.1% year-over-year; the value-added output of industrial enterprises above designated size in September increased by 5.5%.

6. In an exclusive interview with the Tehran Times, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesperson Hossein穆赫比 stated that Iran has not yet used its full capacity to completely block the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has not yet linked the situations in the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Suez Canal, nor has it mobilized all the forces in the region and the capabilities of the “Axis of Resistance.”

7. According to Iranian media Fars News: A spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that seven major undersea fiber-optic cables pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and all global internet and commercial data rely on these cables. We highlight this to make it known to our adversaries.

1. The front-month U.S. crude oil contract closed down 0.79% at $98.24 per barrel; the front-month Brent crude oil contract fell 0.62% to $109.18 per barrel.

2. International precious metals futures generally closed lower; COMEX gold futures fell 0.50% to $4,160.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.13% to $57.23 per ounce.

3. Most base metals in London rose, with LME nickel up 1.54% at $15,600.0 per ton, LME aluminum up 1.08% at $3,034.0 per ton, LME tin up 1.07% at $50,925.0 per ton, LME zinc up 1.00% at $3,729.0 per ton, LME lead up 0.48% at $1,898.0 per ton, and LME copper down 0.24% at $14,372.5 per ton.

4. International agricultural futures closed lower across the board; as of the 2:20 close, U.S. soybeans fell 0.65%, U.S. corn fell 1.58%, U.S. soybean oil fell 0.64%, U.S. soybean meal fell 0.76%, and U.S. wheat fell 0.68%.

5. At the close of the Monday night session, domestic futures main contracts saw more declines than gains: Ethylene Glycol (EG) fell nearly 4%, synthetic rubber, coking coal, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) dropped over 2%, rapeseed meal and propylene fell nearly 2%, and bottle-grade PET and methanol declined over 1%. On the upside, polyvinyl chloride (PVC) rose nearly 1%.

As of October 18, the Ganqimaojiu port has cumulatively handled 38.4981 million tons of imported and exported freight. This includes 36.2079 million tons of imported coal, 1.5708 million tons of imported copper concentrate, 0.0024 million tons of imported manganese ore, and 0.717 million tons of exported goods.

2. According to the China Coal Distribution Association, in the first ten days of October, the daily average production of 30 key coking coal enterprises reached 514,000 tons, up 1.2% from the late September figure but down 4.1% year-over-year; during the same period, the daily average coal sales volume amounted to 477,000 tons, down 4.2% from the previous旬 and down 9.8% year-over-year.

3. According to Mysteel, the number of coking coal mines in Shanxi resuming production continues to increase, with acceleration in resumption progress in areas such as Taiyuan's Guxiao. This week’s production data for coking coal mines is still being tracked; since May 23, a total of 207 mines in Shanxi have experienced shutdowns, with a combined capacity of 278 million tons. As of October 19, 48 mines remain shut down, a weekly decrease of 6; their combined capacity is 53.05 million tons, down 3.65 million tons week-over-week.

4. According to Mysteel, market sources indicate that the Bayannur City Transportation Bureau plans to organize a meeting with Mongolian authorities in early November to discuss increasing the number of vehicles cleared at the Ganqimodu border crossing. Surveys suggest that, starting in November, Ganqimodu Port will gradually return to normal clearance levels, with expected vehicle throughput ranging between 1,100 and 1,500 vehicles.

5. On October 19, coke prices in markets across Shandong Province—including Weifang, Binzhou, Dezhou, Jining, Zaozhuang, Heze, Rizhao, Tai’an, and Linyi—are scheduled to increase: wet-quenched coke by RMB 50/ton and dry-quenched coke by RMB 55/ton, effective from 0:00 on October 21. In the Binzhou market, some coke producers have raised prices: premium-grade dry-quenched coke increased by RMB 55/ton to RMB 2,275/ton, and first-grade wet-quenched coke increased by RMB 50/ton to RMB 2,080/ton, effective from 9:00 on October 19.

6. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September 2026, nationwide real estate development investment amounted to RMB 5.3364 trillion, a year-over-year decrease of 20.6%; among which, residential investment was RMB 4.1125 trillion, down 20.5%.

7. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's crude steel production in September 2026 was 73.59 million tons, a 0.1% year-over-year increase; flat glass production was 68.45 million weight boxes, a 14% year-over-year decrease.

8. According to data released by Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services, during the third week of October 2026, spanning 11 working days, Brazil shipped a total of 19.7876 million tons of iron ore, compared to 40.1121 million tons in October last year. The daily average shipment was 1.7989 million tons per day, a 1.34% decrease from 1.8233 million tons per day in October last year.

1. According to Longzhong Information, as of October 18, 2026, Qingdao's bonded inventory of natural rubber samples decreased by 0.028 million tons to 0.541 million tons, a decline of 4.91%. This marks the seventh consecutive week of inventory reduction in Qingdao's bonded natural rubber zone, with current levels reaching the lowest point in nearly five years. Meanwhile, Qingdao's general trade inventory of natural rubber samples increased by 0.017 million tons to 5.256 million tons, up 0.32%.

2. According to Longzhong Information, as of October 19, 2026, the total inventory of soda ash in China this week stood at 1.5396 million tons, a decrease of 89,300 tons from Monday, or 5.48%. Of this, light soda ash inventory was 822,300 tons, down 31,500 tons week-over-week, while heavy soda ash inventory was 717,300 tons, down 57,800 tons week-over-week.

3. According to Longzhong Information, as of October 19, 2026, the total port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 33,100 metric tons, a decrease of 6,500 metric tons from the previous period (October 12), representing a decline of 16.41%.

4. U.S. Energy Secretary Wright stated that the Trump administration is advancing the approval process to convert certain sanctioned tankers into compliant vessels, with investors planning to acquire idle tankers and refurbish them for transporting non-sanctioned crude oil.

1. India's National Mineral Development Corporation (NMDC) has paused its plans to enter the nickel industry, partly due to concerns over oversupply from Indonesia, which accounts for over 60% of global nickel production. Previously, it was reported that Indian state-owned enterprises Steel Authority of India and NMDC were considering increasing nickel imports from Russia and acquiring coking coal assets.

2. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group forecasts that global refined lead metal demand will increase by 0.9% this year to 13.79 million tons; by 2027, it will rise by 1% to 13.92 million tons. Global lead ore supply in 2026 is expected to decline by 2.8% to 4.44 million tons. Refined lead metal supply will exceed demand by 90,000 tons in 2026, with the surplus projected to expand to 163,000 tons in 2027. Global refined zinc demand is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2026 to 14.02 million tons; by 2027, it will increase by 1.2% to 14.19 million tons.

3. CME Group announced the launch of tungsten futures to meet growing market demand for its metal product lineup. The new contract is expected to begin trading no later than the first quarter of 2027, subject to regulatory review. Global annual tungsten production is approximately 85,000 to 95,000 metric tons. At current spot prices, the global tungsten market exceeds $20 billion.

4. According to SMM, a strong Category 4 typhoon is moving toward northern Philippines, bringing strong winds, heavy rainfall, and rough sea conditions. Although the current forecast track lies north of the Philippines’ main nickel-producing regions, the adverse weather may still disrupt port operations, loading, and coastal transportation. For the nickel market, the primary risk is a potential delay in nickel ore exports from the Philippines to China. If sea conditions continue to deteriorate or some ports suspend operations, short-term nickel ore supply could tighten, increasing procurement pressure on China’s NPI smelters.

5. According to Mysteel, from October 12 to October 18, 2026, a total of 134,000 tons of Australian lithium concentrate were shipped to China, an increase of 63,000 tons week-over-week, with a weekly average shipment of 71,000 tons to China. An additional 25,000 tons were shipped to Indonesia.

6. According to Chilean customs export data, Chile exported a total of 18,900 metric tons of lithium carbonate in September 2026, a 21.61% decrease month-over-month and an 18.6% increase year-over-year. Of this, 13,461 metric tons were exported to China, a 5.61% decrease month-over-month and a 21.26% increase year-over-year.

7. Goldman Sachs expects global central banks to purchase 79 tons of gold in August, far exceeding the pre-2022 average of 17 tons.

8. According to data released by Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services, during the third week of October 2026—comprising 11 working days—Brazil shipped a total of 25,500 metric tons of copper ore and copper concentrate, compared to 160,500 metric tons in October last year. The daily average shipment was 2,300 metric tons per day, a 68.26% decrease from 7,300 metric tons per day in October last year. Cumulatively, 206,300 metric tons of bauxite and alumina were shipped, compared to 912,000 metric tons in October last year. The daily average shipment was 18,800 metric tons per day, a 54.77% decrease from 41,500 metric tons per day in October last year.

9. Goldman Sachs: Raised its year-end 2026 copper price forecast from $13,735 per ton to $14,700. Raised its 2027 average copper price forecast from $13,800 per ton to $15,400. Expects the copper market deficit outside the U.S. to expand to approximately 950,000 tons in 2026 and about 220,000 tons in 2027.

10. At the London Metal Exchange (LME) event held on Monday, participants unanimously agreed that copper has the strongest upside potential among industrial metals, making it the clear favorite.

11. The London Metal Exchange (LME) said on Monday that it has approved Owensboro, Kentucky, USA, as an LME copper delivery location.

Expectations for the resumption of Mongolian coal customs clearance are rising, with all coal and coke contracts trading lower.

CITIC Futures stated that the sharp decline in coal and coke is primarily due to rising expectations for the resumption of Mongolian coal customs clearance. On October 19, Steelhome reported that the Bayannur Municipal Transportation Bureau plans to organize a cross-border transportation coordination meeting with Mongolia in early November to discuss increasing the number of trucks passing through the Ganqimodu port; as a result, Ganqimodu port is expected to gradually return to normal clearance levels starting in November, with anticipated daily truck volumes ranging between 1,100 and 1,500. However, today’s market news has further intensified expectations for increased Mongolian coal imports and strengthened the outlook for recovery in metallurgical coal supply, reinforcing expectations of a weakening fundamental backdrop for coking coal and triggering a rapid decline in futures prices. Overall, after the market reprices the expectation of restored Mongolian coal clearance, market sentiment remains weak, and short-term price pressure on futures is likely to persist. Nevertheless, uncertainty remains regarding the actual resumption of Mongolian coal clearance, and current valuations for coking coal are already at low levels, which may dampen further downside momentum. Traders should remain cautious against excessive short positioning. Future developments should be closely monitored, particularly production dynamics at Shanxi coal mines and the status of Mongolian coal clearance at the ports.

2. Under the backdrop of off-season inventory buildup, egg futures see increased open interest and downward price movement.

China Everbright Futures stated that the seasonal decline in demand serves as the fundamental backdrop for ongoing price pressure. September marks the peak of annual egg demand, and after the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, terminal procurement rapidly softened. According to data from Zhuangchuang Information, October has been characterized primarily by inventory digestion in sales regions, with moderate domestic sales and sluggish external sales; market participants remain bearish. In August, the national laying hen inventory stood at 1.282 billion, down 0.23% month-over-month and 6.08% year-over-year, remaining relatively low compared to recent同期 levels. However, as temperatures have cooled, egg-laying rates have seasonally improved, partially offsetting the impact of reduced hen numbers. On the feed cost side, corn and soybean meal prices have offset each other, resulting in overall stability, limiting cost support for egg prices. Looking ahead, eggs remain in a weak phase characterized by “seasonal demand decline + inventory accumulation.” Spot prices are gradually moving toward the breeding cost line; further declines could trigger accelerated culling of older hens by producers, creating expectations of marginal supply contraction. However, until clear signs of price stabilization emerge and inventory levels in circulation shift from increasing to decreasing, the momentum for increased open interest and downward price movement may be difficult to reverse. Continued attention should be paid to changes in breeders’ sentiment and their impact on supply.