1confirmation Founder Critiques Situational Awareness Crisis: 'Smart Money' Repeats the Same Mistakes

Mars Finance reports that Nick Tomaino, founder of 1confirmation, published a commentary on the crisis surrounding the AI investment fund Situational Awareness, stating that recent discussions around the fund reflect a long-standing issue in the investment community: many so-called “elites” and “smart money” lack basic risk assessment capabilities. Tomaino said he is not familiar with all the details of this incident and does not wish to comment on the specifics of the liquidation, but he believes a deeper issue is that many investors, driven by wealth and attention, have gradually neglected facts, risks, and sound judgment of others. He cited the collapse of FTX as an example: many individuals detected irregularities after brief interactions with the founder, yet substantial “smart money” continued investing and endorsing the project in pursuit of returns and market narratives. Tomaino noted that a similar pattern emerged with the founders and investor circle supporting Situational Awareness: the same type of investors chased grand narratives, provided capital, and promoted the fund—only for it to later face difficulties due to high-risk bets and market reversals. Industry participants must now learn from this experience and avoid repeating the cycle of “chasing trends—ignoring risks—collective losses.”