Source:律动 BlockBeats
Article by Liu Kaiwen
Original title: Prediction Markets New insider trading exposed — once you’re in this position, it’s impossible to lose
Earn double in 89 seconds, repeat 14 times
According to PolyBeats, on August 19 Beijing time, an individual within just 89 seconds,
Achieve a 120% return by predicting whether Russia can occupy a specific region on the battlefield.
This person spent $4,000 to buy a contract on a prediction market platform stating that Russia would capture Konstantinivka this month.
The probability of this event occurring was only 43% at the time. 89 seconds later, this probability rose to 92%.
On this probability-as-price platform, if the event ultimately occurs, the probability will lock at 100%, and the position value will rise accordingly.
This mysterious individual placed an order, witnessed a surge, and took profits—all within under two minutes: in an era where all kinds of trading strategies are emerging,
Such lucky trades are not uncommon.
The suspicious aspect is that this was his 14th such operation in Konstantinivka.
14 consecutive battle predictions won
Account transaction records compiled by PolyBeats show that all 14 prediction trades related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict made by this account were correct.
The total realized profit is approximately $17,500.They do not cover the same city,
Not the same duration: from Marivka, Pokrovske, to Huliaipole,
Konstantinivka; some are about "whether Russia will seize it," others about "whether Ukraine will re-enter."
But the actions are almost like copies made from the same template.
Even more bizarrely, this account not only made 14 consecutive correct predictions, but 11 of those trades saw the probability of profit rise to nearly 100% within 5 minutes of purchase.
It’s difficult to correctly predict the market developments 14 times in a row and buy before the market probability surges.
But if it knew in advance not the battlefield, but the map update time, things would be much simpler.
Prediction market settlement source: a breeding ground for insiders
All of the Russia-Ukraine occupation markets on Polymarket follow nearly the same template:“Will Russia capture ___ before ___?”
Although the question may seem straightforward, what truly determines the answer is not when the gunfire begins.
Polymarket's rules state that only ISW—the Institute for the Study of War—maps of the Ukraine war front will specifically label regions as under Russian control,
And only after meeting the required duration will the market resolve to "Yes"—with the corresponding probability settled at 100%.
In other words, even a soldier standing on occupied territory cannot consistently profit long-term in such a market as an insider: even if the occupation actually occurs,
As long as the ISW serving as the settlement source does not update the map, this market will settle as "No."
In such a market, only one type of person can achieve the perfect profit record mentioned above: someone who doesn’t need to know the frontline situation,
You don't need to understand the geopolitical and military strategies of Russia and Ukraine, or even pay attention to any international news.
He only needed to know in advance which areas ISW had marked as under Russian control and when that update would go live.
This group consists of the technical staff responsible for updating the battlefield situation reports. They only need to click a mouse to confirm the update of the ISW map just before doing so,
Predict the corresponding market entry and buy, and you can achieve substantial profits within a minute.
Sounds like a conspiracy theory? Last year, ISW already pulled a similar stunt.
Employees tamper with open-source intelligence platform data to earn hundreds of times more.
In November 2025, the market had already demonstrated how this mechanism would spiral out of control.
At the time, the market question was, "Will Russia capture Milnohrad before November 15?"
The rules are nearly identical to those above—whenever the ISW map shows Russian forces controlling any part of the designated street intersection, the result can be判定 as "yes."
The biggest difference from the current rules is that the earlier rules did not have a "waiting period": as soon as the map changed, the market's settlement conditions could be met.
And on the evening of the 15th, with only hours remaining until the deadline,
The probability of "yes" is now less than 3%—with no geopolitical news reporting the occupation of Myrnohrad,
Everyone has already assumed that the market will ultimately settle as "No".
Yet at that very moment, the ISW map suddenly showed the area as occupied; before most people had even reacted,
The probability of "Yes" is instantly pushed to 100%.
In the following days, as traders questioned whether this map marker had any substantive evidence, ISW publicly acknowledged,
Between the night of November 15 and 16, an "unauthorized, unapproved" edit was made to the interactive map;
This edit was removed before the normal workflow began on the 16th and does not represent an official battlefield assessment.
The map was retracted, but the market was not—accounts that predicted "yes" as the probability approached zero profited handsomely from this "unauthorized edit."
Among them, 0x69A9 achieved an excess return of 10888.68% by buying when the probability was only 0.9%.
After the Milnohrad incident, ISW stated that its maps are continuously updated on weekdays and should not be interpreted as real-time battlefield conditions;
Subsequently, status indicators for “Editing in Progress” and “Finalized” were added.
Markets related to prediction markets later adopted stricter continuity requirements: the map state must span the next full update cycle to serve as the basis for settlement.
To date, this perfect 14-for-14 predictor has not revealed their identity nor been accused by any institution;
ISW also did not acknowledge any employees profiting from map updates.
But the timeline of 14 consecutive wins is clear: almost every time, it bet on a city when the market viewed it as "uncertain";
Almost every time, it waits until the market is nearly certain before selling; almost every time, it captures the price difference between the period when “no one knows” and when “everyone knows.”
In the past, an ordinary employee at ISW responsible for updating maps might have been just an anonymous cog in the vast open-source intelligence system.
All he holds is a marker about to change color, an update about to be released, and a few seconds before clicking confirm.
These assets were originally non-tradable and may not have attracted much attention.
But when a map determines the final settlement of the market, the price exists seconds before the mouse click.
A person does not need to reveal classified military intelligence, manipulate the battlefield, or even alter any facts;
All he needs to do is know ahead of everyone else that a certain signal is about to appear, turning the permissions granted by his position into nearly guaranteed profits.
Innovation opens a market where everyone can predict the future, and also opens another door: when settlement sources can be seen and altered in advance,
When trading ahead of time, you and I can both become insiders.
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