10x Research: Bitcoin Decline Driven by Inflation Data, Not Strategy Sales

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Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said Bitcoin’s drop below $60,000 was driven by event-driven trading through spot ETFs, not strategy sales. After the April CPI data on May 12, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs experienced a $5.4 billion outflow, while strategy products bought $2 billion. Thielen noted that if May CPI reaches 4.3%, Bitcoin’s rebound could lose momentum. Stablecoins also saw $1.7 billion in outflows last week, with spot grid strategy traders likely adjusting positions in response to shifting macro conditions.

ChainCatcher report, according to CoinDesk, Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, stated that the recent drop of Bitcoin below $60,000 was primarily due to institutional selling through spot ETFs, rather than the widely blamed selling by Strategy. Since the U.S. released its April CPI data on May 12—which came in higher than expected—U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs have累计 net redemptions of approximately $5.4 billion; during the same period, Strategy actually increased its Bitcoin holdings by about $2 billion, making it one of the few major buyers in the market. Thielen warned that if this Wednesday’s May CPI data exceeds 4% (10x Research forecasts 4.3%, above the market expectation of 4.2%), any short-term Bitcoin rebound may be unsustainable, as heightened expectations of Fed rate hikes will further pressure risk assets. Additionally, stablecoins saw net outflows of approximately $1.7 billion last week and a cumulative $5.5 billion this month, indicating ongoing capital outflows from the broader crypto market. Thielen emphasized: “Institutional ETF fund flows are the core driver of price—follow the money, not the narrative.”

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