Key Takeaways
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The last full bear market ran from November 2021 ($69K peak) to November 2022 ($15.5K low) — 12–14 months, 77% drawdown.
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We are already in a bear market in 2026: Bitcoin was down >20% (actually 50%) from its October 2025 high, with on-chain indicators at capitulation levels.
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Current cycle: 4 months in; CryptoQuant sees first credible bottom window in Q3 2026; Compass Point calls it “final innings” with support at $60K–$68K.
Crypto markets move in dramatic 4-year cycles tied to Bitcoin halvings. After the explosive 2024–2025 bull run that took Bitcoin to $126,000 in October 2025, the market has reversed sharply. As of February 2026, Bitcoin trades at nearly $70,000–$75,000 after a 40–50% drawdown, with many analysts confirming a full bear-market regime.
When Was the Last Crypto Bear Market?
The most recent complete bear market occurred in the 2021–2022 cycle:
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Peak: November 2021 at $69,000
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Trough: November 2022 at $15,500
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Duration: 12 months from peak to bottom
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Drawdown: 77–85%
Previous cycles followed similar patterns:
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2017–2018: 12 months, 84% drop
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2014–2015: 14 months, 85% drop
Are We Entering or Already in a Bear Market in 2026?
We are already firmly in a bear market.
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Bitcoin peaked at $126,000 in early October 2025.
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By early February 2026, the price had fallen 41–50%+, briefly touching below $64,000 on Feb 5.
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CryptoQuant (Feb 4, 2026 report): Bull Score Index collapsed from 80 to 0; price broke below the 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2022; institutional ETF flows reversed (net sellers –10.6K BTC YTD vs +46K last year).
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Compass Point (Feb 2, 2026): “We are approaching the final innings of the crypto bear market.”
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Pantera Capital: The non-Bitcoin token market has actually been in a bear market since December 2024.
On-chain and technical signals (Fear & Greed in Extreme Fear, broken long-term averages, ETF outflows) confirm a bear-market regime, not just a correction.
How Long Does a Crypto Bear Market Last?
Historical data shows crypto bear markets are shorter but steeper than bull runs:
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| Cycle | Peak to Trough Duration | Max Drawdown |
| 2011–2012 | 6–8 months | –93% |
| 2014–2015 | 14 months | –85% |
| 2017–2018 | 12 months | –84% |
| 2021–2022 | 12 months | –77% |
| Average | 9–18 months (median 12) | 70–85% |
Current 2026 bear market (started October 2025):
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4 months have elapsed so far.
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CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno: First credible bottom window around Q3 2026; possible deeper leg to $56K–$70K if macro worsens.
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Compass Point: Base case bottom $60K–$68K in “final innings” (absent broader equity crash).
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Some analysts see a shorter, choppier bear (3–6 months) due to institutional participation and ETF flows.
How to Survive a Crypto Bear Market in 2026
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Avoid panic, selling — bottoms are made in fear.
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Use DCA to lower your average cost.
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Accumulate high-conviction assets (BTC, ETH) at discounts.
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Generate yield via staking or stablecoin lending.
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Keep dry powder (20–40% in stablecoins) for the eventual bottom.
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Reduce leverage and focus on risk management.
Bear markets separate survivors from the crowd. Those who stay disciplined historically capture the largest gains in the next cycle.
2026 Outlook
Most institutional voices (CryptoQuant, Compass Point, Pantera) expect the bear phase to be resolved in 2026, with a bottom likely in the $56K–$68K zone and recovery later in the year or into 2027. Structural tailwinds (institutional adoption, ETF infrastructure, tokenization) remain intact.
This is educational content only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile. Always do your own research.
FAQs
When was the last crypto bear market?
The last full bear market ran from November 2021 to November 2022 (12 months, 77% drawdown).
Are we in a bear market right now (February 2026)?
Yes — Bitcoin is down 50% from its October 2025 high, with on-chain and sentiment indicators confirming a bear regime.
How long does a crypto bear market last?
Historically 9–18 months (median 12 months). The current one began in October 2025; analysts see a possible bottom in Q3 2026.
What is the expected bottom for Bitcoin in 2026?
Compass Point: $60K–$68K. CryptoQuant: possible $56K–$70K range.
Will the 2026 bear market be shorter than previous ones?
Possibly — institutional flows and ETF infrastructure may make this cycle milder or shorter than 2022.