Reporting Period: December 15 – December 21, 2025
Market Sentiment: Extreme Panic / Cautious Observation
Core Theme: Volatility Convergence, Non-US Sentiment Recovery, Policy Observation Phase
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Market Overview: Rangebound Trading vs. Persistent Panic
Last week, Bitcoin (BTC) traded within a narrow range of $84,000 – $90,000, ending the week with a slight increase of 0.55%. Although volatility significantly converged, the market failed to warm up as "Extreme Panic" continued to haunt investors.
The "$90k Ceiling" Effect
Bitcoin attempted to break the $90,000 resistance level four times last week, all of which resulted in failure. The selling pressure primarily stemmed from short-term funds that entered at local bottoms the previous week; these traders showed a strong desire to exit at "break-even" levels as soon as the price approached $90,000.
"East Rising, West Falling": Non-US Markets Lead Recovery
The market exhibited a distinct pattern of "Strong Asian Session, Weak US Session":
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US Market Under Pressure: US-based Spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of approximately $490 million. Buying power on Coinbase remained exhausted, exerting direct downward pressure during US trading hours.
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Asian & Global Recovery: The spot CVDB (Cumulative Volume Delta) index on global exchanges (such as Binance) turned positive for the first time since October. This indicates that sentiment in non-US markets has stabilized and begun to recover ahead of the US, offsetting the capital flight from American funds.
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Macro Environment: Central Bank Super Week & AI Narrative Rebound
The global monetary policy landscape has entered a phase of "de-synchronization," though concerns over tightening liquidity eased slightly following a volatile start to the week.
Global Central Bank Dynamics: Prudence and Pivots
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Bank of Japan (BoJ): Raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years. Despite the hike, Governor Kazuo Ueda maintained a "prudent" tone, leading traders to bet that the next hike may not occur until September 2026.
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Bank of England (BoE): Cut interest rates by 25 basis points—its sixth cut since August 2024—but maintained a cautious stance, suggesting a slower easing path ahead.
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European Central Bank (ECB): Held rates steady and shifted into an "observation period," pausing the rate-cutting cycle it had maintained since July.
US Tech Stocks Rebound
US equities saw a dramatic V-shaped reversal. Initial fears of an AI valuation bubble led to a mid-week slump, but sentiment was reshaped by OpenAI’s massive financing plan and cooling inflation data. The Nasdaq closed up 0.48%, helping to alleviate some liquidity fears within the crypto sector.
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Technicals & On-Chain Data: Support Shifts and Derivatives Pressure
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Support & Resistance: A new significant support level has formed near $87,000, while the selling pressure in the $90,000 – $93,000 range remains the primary obstacle for bulls.
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Investor Confidence: Trading continues to be dominated by short-term speculators, with a notable lack of confidence for long-term holdings.
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Options Expiry: Approximately $23.7 billion worth of Bitcoin options are set to expire this week. This massive notional value is expected to exert "traction" on prices and significantly amplify volatility near the end of the year.
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Altcoin Sluggishness: Liquidity remains concentrated in Bitcoin, leaving the altcoin market deeply stagnant with few independent rallies.
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Summary & Outlook
The crypto market spent last week in a "recovery phase." While prices remained horizontal, the regrouping of spot buying power—particularly in non-US markets—is a positive underlying signal. However, as the year-end approaches, liquidity is expected to thin further.
Key Focus for This Week:
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The $23.7 Billion Options Expiry and its potential to trigger a market flush.
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Whether net outflows from US Spot ETFs begin to decelerate.
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Bitcoin’s ability to use the momentum from the Asian session and stabilized US tech stocks to finally reclaim and hold the $90,000 level.