Surging Oil Prices Weigh on Risk Appetite; Bitcoin Holds Above $70K in Range-Bound Trading
Summary
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Macroeconomy: Multiple indicators suggest the U.S.–Iran conflict may last longer than previously expected. WTI crude oil briefly surged 8%, reaching its highest level since July 2024. The renewed spike in oil prices has intensified concerns about persistent inflation, weighing on risk assets as all three major U.S. stock indices closed lower.
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Crypto Market: Bitcoin moved in tandem with U.S. equity futures and declined slightly, trading within the $70,000–$74,000 range throughout the day. The $74,000 level has emerged as a notable technical resistance, with two consecutive days failing to achieve a decisive breakout. A macro improvement may be required to catalyze further upside. Bitcoin’s market dominance ended its three-day rise, slipping 0.4% day-over-day, while altcoins showed relative resilience during the pullback.
Project Updates
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Trending Tokens: OKB, HUMA, BARD
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OKB: The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), invested in OKX at a $25 billion valuation, pushing OKB briefly above $120.
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BARD: Trading activity is largely driven by Korean capital, accounting for more than 40% of total volume.
Major Asset Changes
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 18 (24h ago: 22) — Extreme Fear
Today’s Outlook
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U.S. January Retail Sales MoM
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U.S. February Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate
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173,000 HYPE tokens will be unstaked and distributed to team members on March 6
Macroeconomic Developments
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Politico: The U.S. government is reportedly unprepared for a potential escalation of the war with Iran and has called for additional intelligence personnel in preparation for a 100-day conflict scenario.
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Iranian military officials stated that the Strait of Hormuz has not been blocked.
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A U.S. federal judge ruled that Trump-era tariffs must be fully refunded.
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Twelve U.S. states are expected to file lawsuits to block the latest global tariff policy introduced by the Trump administration.
Crypto Policy
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Regulatory authorities in the UK and U.S. are divided on how to test blockchain-based financial securities products. In negotiations aimed at strengthening crypto cooperation, the UK favors a more cautious approach.
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The U.S. SEC is advancing clarification on the applicability of securities laws to crypto assets.
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The SEC has terminated its lawsuit against Justin Sun.
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The Russian Ministry of Finance is considering introducing a stablecoin bill.
Industry Highlights
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Ethereum Foundation: Plans to position the Ethereum network as a trust layer for artificial intelligence.
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The tokenized stablecoin YLDS has increased its circulating supply to $588 million, up 56% WoW.
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Australia approved the issuance of the AUDC stablecoin on XRP Ledger.
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Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Mizuho Bank, and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation are jointly advancing a JPY-pegged stablecoin proof-of-concept.
Weekly Outlook
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March 6: U.S. January Retail Sales MoM; U.S. February Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate; 173K HYPE tokens to be unstaked and distributed to team members
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March 7: RED unlock — 16.13% of circulating supply (~$6.2M)
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TBD: Closely monitor developments in the Iran situation, as Iran stated it may launch its most intense offensive.