Crypto Weekly In-Depth Report (January 2026)

• Liquidity Injection: The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) released approximately $89 billion in liquidity. Combined with President Trump’s policies exhibiting "disguised QE" characteristics, market optimism regarding liquidity has surged.
• Equities Rally: The S&P 500 (+1.57%) hit new all-time highs, while the Nasdaq rose by 1.88%.
• Crypto Lag: Despite the risk-on appetite in equities, BTC saw a slight cumulative decline of 0.58%, with ETF net outflows totaling $680 million. This suggests that macro liquidity has not yet effectively transmitted to the crypto market, which remains in a transitional phase.

1. MA Convergence: The 4-hour EMAs are tightly clustered in the $90k – $91k zone. Historically, such prolonged moving average convergence is a precursor to a major "unilateral trend" (a powerful move in one direction).
2. Directional Choice: Volatility has reached a critical bottleneck. The market is essentially in a state of "fragile equilibrium," waiting for a catalyst (such as this week's CPI or legislative sessions) to break the deadlock. Once the direction is clear, the move is expected to have strong continuity.

• Positive CVDB: The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVDB) has stabilized above the zero axis, indicating that active buying has overtaken selling. The market is shifting from being supply-driven to demand-driven.
• Exchange Divergence:
  • Binance (Non-US Dominance): Buying pressure has expanded, reflecting a growing appetite for spot accumulation among international investors.
  • Coinbase (US Sentiment): Previous selling pressure has stabilized, suggesting that the phase of aggressive profit-taking by US-based entities is cooling off.

• Efficient Turnover: Concentrated selling in the $84.5k – $89.6k range (mostly short-term profit-taking) has been fully absorbed.
• Strong Accumulation Zone: Between $89.6k and $92.1k, holdings increased by 366,000 BTC. This massive buy-wall explains why BTC has held firmly above $90k.
• Sparse Overhead Resistance: * Strong Support: Over 1.37 million BTC are held in the $87k – $90k range.
  • Low Resistance Above: The chip distribution between $92k and $104k is thin. If BTC breaks the technical resistance at $94.5k, it could accelerate rapidly toward the $100,000 psychological milestone due to the lack of "sell walls" in that zone.

• OI Recovery: Futures Open Interest (OI) has rebounded to levels seen in April 2025, signaling a steady recovery in risk appetite.
• Option Sentiment:
  • Short-term: A slight uptick in short-term volatility and a rise in downside protection (put buying) suggests traders are hedging against potential local corrections.
  • Mid-to-Long Term: The 3-month and 6-month option skews remain healthy, indicating that investors are betting on a temporary "dip" rather than a fundamental trend reversal.

Core Summary