Oil Breaks Above $90 as Global Long-End Bond Selloff Intensifies, BTC Falls Toward $77K
🔍 Core Insights
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📊 Market Analysis
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U.S.-Iran tensions escalated further, triggering renewed pricing of supply risks around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude surged 4.6% overnight to $94.65/bbl, while WTI gained 5.2% to $90.22/bbl. Higher energy prices, combined with fiscal and inflation concerns, drove a synchronized selloff across global long-duration bonds, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rising to around 4.79%, its highest level since January 2025. The combination of higher oil prices and higher rates weighed broadly on risk assets: the Dow fell 0.79% to 52,766.88, the S&P 500 dropped 0.71% to 7,631.47, and the Nasdaq declined 1.03% to 26,099.77. BTC retreated from around $79K yesterday, briefly falling to $76.4K before recovering toward $77K, while ETH dipped below $2.4K before rebounding to around that level. Unlike the previous phase, when BTC remained above $78K despite rate pressure alone, the simultaneous surge in oil prices and long-end yields has begun to weaken price support. The short-term setup has shifted from testing $80K to defending support: $76K–$77K is now the first key support zone, followed by $75K below; a recovery above $78K–$79K would signal easing selling pressure, while $80K remains the key confirmation level for a renewed bullish trend.
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BTC: $77,431.0 (-1.46%); ETH: $2,418.41 (-1.99%); NASDAQ: 26,099.77 (-1.03%); S&P 500: 7,631.47 (-0.71%); Fear & Greed Index: 63 (previous: 69) (Data as of: 2026-09-02 00:00 UTC)
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🧠 Market Insight
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ETF flows continue to provide support despite macro pressure, with $80K–$83K emerging as a key institutional validation zone. U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded approximately $3.5 billion in net inflows in August, the highest since July 2025; on August 31, they added another roughly $217 million after briefly turning negative in the previous session. Spot ETH ETFs recorded around $87.6 million in net inflows over the same period and extended their inflow streak to 11 consecutive trading days, showing stronger near-term flow consistency. BTC is now approaching the estimated $80K–$83K average cost basis of ETF investors. If ETF inflows remain resilient and help BTC establish support above this range, it would further confirm institutional capital as a renewed source of incremental demand; if long-end Treasury yields remain elevated, however, the same range could continue to act as resistance.
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🔥 Alpha Project Performance
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SKR: Seeker Summer Season 2 concluded on August 30, while the Seeker dApp Store, SKR staking and USDC Earn continue to support the broader Web3 mobile narrative. SKR gained more than 180% at one point over the past week, with 24-hour trading volume reaching approximately $428 million.
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ENA: Ethena launched a USDe-powered Money App, expanding payment and token utility use cases. Trading volume more than doubled and ENA rose over 5% intraday, though roughly 40.63 million tokens are scheduled to unlock today, keeping near-term supply pressure in focus.
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Robinhood Ecosystem: Stock-paired Meme activity remained strong, with representative tokens AI gaining around 93% over 24 hours and MOO rising more than 59%, both reaching new local market-cap highs. On-chain DEX volume also continued to set records, with capital still concentrated in Meme and stock-token paired trading.
Macro Economy
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U.S.-Iran conflict escalates: U.S. Central Command announced a new round of strikes against Iran, with attacks reported around the key energy hub of Asaluyeh and several locations along Iran’s southern coast. Iran retaliated by claiming to have shot down a U.S. MQ-9 drone and launching missiles toward U.S. military bases in Erbil, Jordan and Bahrain. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was severely disrupted, with two supertankers reportedly struck by projectiles. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said during the G20 meetings that alternative shipping routes around the strait could be established within two years.
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Global bond yields rose to multi-year highs. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.79%; Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose above 3% for the first time since 1996; Germany’s 10-year yield reached 3.34%, its highest level since 2011; and the UK 10-year yield rose to 5.255%, the highest since 2008, while the 30-year yield reached 5.904%, a 28-year high.
Industry Events
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The London Stock Exchange plans to launch tokenized UK equities in partnership with Kraken parent Payward.
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The Monetary Authority of Singapore is proposing new stablecoin rules covering cross-border recognition and restrictions on interest payments.
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Citi, Goldman Sachs and 19 other global financial institutions plan to jointly establish a stablecoin company, targeting the launch of a U.S. dollar stablecoin in 2027 before expanding into the euro and other currencies.
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Ripple and SettleMint will collaborate to provide custody, issuance and management infrastructure for tokenized assets to financial institutions across Asia-Pacific.
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Sui-based DeFi protocol Full Sail will shut down following a Switchboard oracle security incident, while affected protocol Virtue reported approximately $455,000 in losses.
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The U.S. SEC proposed updating registered transfer agent rules to reflect the growing use of blockchain and tokenized securities.
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Latin American stablecoin remittance network Felix Pago raised $200 million in Series B financing, with participation from a16z and Customer Value Fund.
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Bitcoin’s “Kimchi premium” in South Korea returned and remained positive for a full week, its longest positive streak since May.
Weekly Outlook
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September 2: U.S. August ADP employment change; ENA unlocks approximately 0.46% of circulating supply, worth around $6.4 million; ZAMA unlocks approximately 12.7%, worth around $14.76 million; 2Z unlocks approximately 3.9%, worth around $7.35 million.
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September 3: The Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book; Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks on the inflation outlook; the U.S. releases initial jobless claims for the week ended August 29.
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September 4: The U.S. releases the August unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls.
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September 5: OPN unlocks approximately 10.04% of circulating supply, worth around $2.2 million.
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September 6: Seven OPEC+ countries hold their monthly meeting; HYPE unlocks approximately 0.1% of circulating supply, worth around $36.1 million.
