10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Breaks Above 5%, Pressuring Risk Assets; BTC Bucks the Trend and Rebounds to 79K Before Pulling Back
🔍 Core Insights
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📊 Market Overview
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Risk assets diverged sharply overnight: U.S. equities remained under pressure, while BTC briefly bucked the trend and rebounded above 79K. Middle East energy-supply risks briefly pushed Brent crude close to $110, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose above 5% intraday and the 30-year yield climbed to around 5.37%. Market pricing for a 25bp Fed rate hike this week rose above 90%. At the same time, calls from major AI companies to slow frontier-model development raised concerns over capital spending, sending the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 5.9%, Nvidia down 3.4%, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lower by 0.48% and 0.56%, respectively. However, as Trump struck a more positive tone on Iran negotiations and on halting attacks on energy infrastructure in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, oil prices pulled back from their highs and the crypto market recovered. BTC briefly climbed to around 79.2K, ETH broke above 2.6K, and crypto-related stocks such as Coinbase and Circle significantly outperformed the broader market. Total crypto liquidations over the past 12 hours reached roughly $250 million, including around $178 million in short liquidations, indicating that short covering also contributed to the rebound. BTC moved back to around 77K–78K in early trading. Near-term support sits around 77K, with 75K–76K remaining an important lower support zone; 79K–80K remains the first major resistance area, while a break above 82K would be needed to open further upside. Today’s CLARITY Act vote and the subsequent FOMC decision will be the key variables for the market’s next directional move.
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BTC: $78,205.7 (+1.77%); ETH: $2,515.96 (+1.55%); NASDAQ: 26,186.41 (-0.56%); S&P 500: 7,619.98 (-0.48%); Fear & Greed Index: 69 (previous: 57) (Data as of 2026-09-15 00:00 UTC)
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🧠 Market Insights
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With the CLARITY Act approaching a key vote, significant disagreements remain between the two parties over ethics restrictions and stablecoin rewards. The Senate will hold a procedural vote today, and the bill needs 60 votes to advance to further consideration. Republicans currently hold only 53 seats, meaning they still need support from at least seven Democrats or independents. The latest text has incorporated a large number of Democratic amendments, and Trump has also accepted most of the stricter restrictions on crypto-related conflicts of interest for public officials. However, Democrats still believe the ethics provisions are not strict enough, while the banking sector remains concerned that stablecoin rewards could pull deposits away from banks and disrupt traditional banking businesses. Importantly, today’s vote only determines whether the bill can continue through the Senate process and does not represent final passage. Even if it secures 60 votes, the bill would still face amendments, a final Senate vote, and reconciliation with the House version.
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Market expectations have improved, but sentiment remains cautious overall. On Polymarket, the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 recently rose from around 12% to roughly 30% at one point, suggesting that the latest concessions have improved market confidence, though the market is still far from pricing in broad-based optimism. If the bill advances tonight, expectations for a clearer U.S. crypto regulatory framework would strengthen significantly. If it is blocked, the more likely outcome would be a slower legislative process rather than institutions stopping their entry into crypto. SEC Chair Atkins has made clear that even if CLARITY stalls, the SEC will continue advancing rules around digital asset issuance, on-chain ownership records, and custody. Coinbase, Circle, and other crypto-related stocks also significantly outperformed U.S. equities overnight, suggesting that investors have already begun pricing in some degree of policy optimism.
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🔥 Alpha Project Performance
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RWA and on-chain yield-related assets outperformed: CPOOL rose about 34% over 24H, PENDLE gained around 14%, and XLM rose roughly 8%. Clearpool is advancing an institutional credit market built around XRPL and RLUSD, while PENDLE recently launched on Robinhood Chain and introduced tokenized-stock yield markets.
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The Robinhood ecosystem showed signs of a partial recovery after cooling for several consecutive days: PONS rose around 20% over 24H with roughly $138 million in trading volume, while AI gained around 25%. However, Robinhood Chain revenue remains at relatively low levels, suggesting the move is still more consistent with capital returning after an oversold period and short-term rotation into hot themes.
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ZEC: Upgrade expectations continued to build after the NU7 community vote concluded, driving a noticeable increase in short-term market attention. The token rose around 10% over 24H with roughly $1.5 billion in trading volume.
Macro Economy
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Middle East: Saudi Arabia has faced repeated attacks over the past two weeks. Yemen’s Houthis control much of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline and have attacked Saudi energy facilities, while a drone strike by Iran-aligned militias in Iraq forced the closure of a Saudi oil pipeline. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman requested U.S. military intervention but was rejected by Trump. Iran denied involvement in the attack on the Saudi oil pipeline.
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The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to the psychologically important 5% level, the highest since 2023, while the 30-year yield climbed to 5.372%.
Industry Events
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The U.S. House Financial Services Committee is scheduled to review a strategic Bitcoin reserve bill on September 16.
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Brazil’s central bank issued final rules for virtual-asset licensing, sharply raising minimum capital requirements and tightening entry standards for the crypto industry.
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SWIFT and 17 banks, including Citi and MUFG, launched a cross-border payments pilot using tokenized deposits.
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The U.K. FCA is working with the Treasury and the Bank of England to explore regulatory exemptions for tokenized gold and commodities.
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The EU Cyber Resilience Act took effect, requiring crypto-wallet vulnerabilities to be reported within 24 hours.
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Swiss Bitcoin Pay and Revolut were hit by separate cyberattacks, resulting in user-data leaks.
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The National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic entered into a strategic partnership with CertiK focused on digital som security and digital-asset regulation.
Weekly Outlook
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September 15: Senate procedural vote on the CLARITY Act; YZY unlock equal to 4.4% of circulating supply, worth around $8.4 million; ZKC unlock equal to 42.15% of circulating supply, worth around $5.81 million.
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September 16: ARB unlock equal to 1.85% of circulating supply, worth around $17.31 million.
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September 17: Fed Chair holds a monetary policy press conference; the FOMC releases its rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections; U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending September 12; Bank of England policy rate decision; ASTER unlock equal to 2.02% of circulating supply, worth around $37.75 million; SPK unlock equal to 9.04% of circulating supply, worth around $5.38 million.
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September 18: EU finance ministers’ meeting; Japan CPI release; Bank of Japan rate decision.
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September 20: ZRO unlock equal to 7.28% of circulating supply, worth around $26.45 million; BR unlock equal to 18.68% of circulating supply, worth around $10.4 million.
