Hotter PPI and Oil Above $100 Push Rate-Hike Expectations Higher, BTC Falls Back to 77K
🔍 Core Insights
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📊 Market Overview
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Risk assets remained under pressure overnight. U.S. August PPI rose to 5.4% year over year, while escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed Brent crude above $107 per barrel, further increasing expectations for a 25 bp Fed rate hike next week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approached 5%, while the 30-year yield rose above 5.35%. U.S. equities weakened in tandem, with the Dow down around 0.6%, the S&P 500 down around 0.6%, and the Nasdaq down about 1%. Crypto-related equities underperformed further, with Coinbase down around 5%, Strategy falling more than 7%, and higher-beta names such as Galaxy and CIFR posting double-digit declines. BTC fell below 77K and traded around 76.7K in early Asian trading, while ETH hovered near $2.44K. In the short term, BTC support is around 75K–76K, while 77.5K–78K has turned back into resistance, with 79K–80K remaining the more important recovery zone. Tonight’s CPI release will be the final major directional macro catalyst ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.
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BTC: $76,562.8 (-2.22%); ETH: $2,438.19 (-1.22%); NASDAQ: 26,081.72 (-0.65%); S&P 500: 7,591.70 (-0.58%); Fear & Greed Index: 56 (previous: 69) (Data as of: 2026-09-11 00:00 UTC)
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🧠 Market Insights
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The macro shock has triggered market deleveraging, but longer-term capital has not shown clear signs of exiting. Hotter-than-expected PPI, oil above $100, and U.S. Treasury yields approaching 5% quickly revived rate-hike expectations and pushed BTC sharply lower. Around $500 million in crypto positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for most of the losses. Ninety-five of the 100 constituents in the CoinDesk 100 declined, with Meme and smaller-cap assets leading the selloff, suggesting the correction is first clearing crowded momentum trades and highly leveraged positions. Capital is tightening, but the more visible shift is toward larger assets and increasing divergence across different crypto exposures. U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded around $120 million in net outflows, while ETH ETFs attracted roughly $34.75 million and SOL ETFs around $11.73 million in net inflows. CryptoRank data also shows that, excluding stablecoins, market capitalization among the top 100 crypto assets is becoming increasingly concentrated in larger assets, with BTC alone accounting for around 66.6%, while altcoins continue to lose share. Glassnode also noted that selling pressure during BTC’s recent rebound was less than half the level seen at the August peak, with long-term holders largely absent from the current wave of selling. This suggests the correction is more consistent with macro-driven deleveraging and capital reallocation than a broad exit by long-term holders. If tonight’s CPI remains hot, the 75K area could face another test; if inflation comes in below expectations, the leverage reset may instead create better conditions for a short-term recovery.
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🔥 Alpha Project Performance
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Against the broader deleveraging backdrop, capital is still concentrating in projects with independent catalysts:
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BFC: Korean exchanges added new BFC/KRW and BFC/USDT trading pairs yesterday, triggering a sharp influx of capital. BFC gained around 249% over 24 hours, with trading volume reaching approximately $130 million—more than twice its roughly $54 million market capitalization.
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RAY: Trading activity across Solana Meme and Launchpad markets continues to feed into underlying DEX infrastructure, with a large share of Stonkfun activity routed through Raydium liquidity pools. RAY gained around 17% over 24 hours and roughly 75% over seven days, maintaining clear relative strength despite the broader market pullback.
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ETHFI: ether.fi recently consolidated cashback rewards across spending, trading, and borrowing into ETHFI distributions, with a seven-day lock-up period, increasing direct utility demand for the token. ETHFI gained around 8% over 24 hours.
Macro Economy
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U.S.-Iran tensions: Iran announced that it would suspend the 10% surcharge imposed on foreign energy shipping and said it had intercepted U.S. unmanned vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Houthi forces took control of Yemen’s Mokha port and the Hanish Islands in the Red Sea, increasing risks to shipping through both the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. Trump warned that the U.S. would respond forcefully if Iran escalates its nuclear activities, while Netanyahu warned of further action against the Iranian regime and Hezbollah.
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The U.S. Treasury repurchased $5.187 billion of 10- to 20-year Treasuries on Thursday, below the previously announced maximum repurchase size of $6 billion. The 2-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2024, while the 10-year yield climbed to its highest level since 2023.
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U.S. August PPI rose 5.4% year over year, above expectations of 5.3%, while the previous reading was revised from 4.7% to 4.8%.
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U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended September 5 came in at 206,000, slightly above expectations of 205,000, while the previous reading was revised from 206,000 to 207,000.
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Australia’s 3-year government bond yield briefly surged to 5.03%, while the 10-year yield rose to 5.38%, both reaching their highest levels since May 2011.
Industry Events
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The U.S. Senate released a revised version of the CLARITY Act ahead of a key vote scheduled for September 15.
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Uniswap Labs launched the StablePair Hook, designed specifically for stablecoin trading pairs.
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The U.S. SEC is considering allowing blockchain records to serve as the official record of securities ownership, potentially marking an important regulatory breakthrough for tokenized equities.
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Kalshi received CFTC approval to launch perpetual contracts on gold and silver, becoming the first approved issuer of non-crypto perpetual products.
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EU regulators warned that prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi lack appropriate regulatory authorization.
Weekly Outlook
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September 11: U.S. August CPI release; Oracle earnings; APT unlocks 0.94% of circulating supply, worth approximately $6.92 million; ALLO unlocks 8.6% of circulating supply, worth approximately $4.16 million.
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September 12: 18th BRICS Leaders’ Summit (September 12–13).
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September 13: UP unlocks 16.7% of circulating supply, worth approximately $10.77 million.
