Rising Rate-Hike Expectations and Crypto Security Shock Push BTC Below $78K, Testing the $76.5K Cost Basis
🔍 Key Insights
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📊 Market Analysis
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U.S. economic data pointed to accelerating GDP growth alongside a rebound in inflation, fueling expectations of further rate hikes. Meanwhile, Alphabet’s weaker-than-expected earnings prompted markets to reassess the returns on AI investment, sending all three major U.S. stock indexes lower, with the Communication Services sector plunging 6.6%. Amazon, Intel, and SanDisk shares came under further pressure following their earnings releases, with Intel tumbling 21.6%, Amazon falling 5.7%, and SanDisk declining 3.4%. The crypto market faced an additional shock as Binance’s hot wallets were suspected of suffering a major hack, with abnormal outflows of substantial funds triggering short-term panic selling. BTC broke decisively below the key $80,000 and $78,000 support levels on elevated trading volume, reaching a low of $77,012.4 before consolidating narrowly around $77,000–$77,300. The technical structure has shifted into an accelerated correction and bottom-confirmation phase. The key short-term level to watch is $76,500, the average cost basis of short-term holders (STH). If this level holds, consolidation could help stabilize sentiment and build momentum for a rebound. If it breaks, short-term holders’ unrealized profits will come under pressure, potentially turning some holdings into selling pressure and driving prices lower.
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BTC: $77,988.8 (-4.12%); ETH: $2,253.61 (-4.49%); NASDAQ: 26,184.72 (-1.38%); S&P 500: 7,720.39 (-0.30%); Fear & Greed Index: 30 (previous: 51) * (Data as of: 2026-10-30 00:00 UTC)*
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🧠 Market Insights
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Binance suffered a large-scale hot-wallet attack, with abnormal transfers detected across multiple hot-wallet addresses involving more than 60 assets, including ETH, BTC, USDT, and USDC. On-chain estimates put the outflows at approximately $5.3 billion–$5.6 billion. Binance urgently suspended deposits and withdrawals and pledged to fully cover user losses. Tether, Circle, and Ripple assisted in freezing or intercepting some of the funds, with approximately $2.39 billion–$2.54 billion reportedly blocked or frozen so far. CZ confirmed the hack and estimated that losses could slightly exceed $1 billion. The SAFU fund holds approximately 15,000 BTC, worth around $1 billion, providing a degree of protection during the incident response. The hacker converted some assets into ETH, creating continued selling pressure on related assets. UNI fell more than 9%, ENA more than 15%, AAVE more than 11%, PEPE nearly 10%, LINK more than 10%, and ONDO nearly 11%. The broader crypto market sold off, with BNB plunging more than 8% intraday and BTC and ETH also suffering steep declines, triggering short-term panic selling. On the same day, Polymarket was also compromised through a third-party service provider, resulting in estimated losses of $2.7 million–$3.46 million. Users will be fully compensated, but the incident further amplified market concerns over security when combined with the Binance attack.
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In the short term, the incidents have primarily damaged market sentiment, putting broad pressure on risk assets. Binance’s commitment to cover user losses and the swift freezing of some funds by stablecoin issuers have helped ease panic, but a substantial amount of assets remains unrecovered. Markets still face three key uncertainties: first, whether approximately $3.2 billion in BTC and ETH that has not been frozen will face continued selling pressure; second, the risk of secondary attacks stemming from unrevoked EIP-7702 delegations; and third, the long-term erosion of trust in centralized exchange security. If confirmed losses exceed $1 billion, some users may accelerate their migration toward self-custody and decentralized alternatives. Over the medium term, the incident has exposed security vulnerabilities in hot-wallet permission management and newer authorization mechanisms, potentially prompting trading platforms and wallet providers to strengthen authorization verification and risk controls.
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🔥 Alpha Project Performance
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UNI/ENA/PEPE/LINK/AAVE/ONDO: Selling of related tokens by the Binance hacker weighed on prices. UNI fell more than 9%, ENA more than 15%, AAVE more than 11%, PEPE nearly 10%, LINK more than 10%, and ONDO nearly 11%.
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HYPE: ICE partnered with Trade. xyz and OKX to bring Hyperliquid-based perpetual futures into the U.S. regulated market, helping HYPE gain nearly 12% intraday.
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TRX: TRX options launched on Blockchain. com, while continued TRX purchases by Tron Inc. provided additional support. TRX surged from $0.32 to $0.36, with daily trading volume expanding more than threefold and the token rising over 9% intraday.
Macroeconomics
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Middle East tensions: Iran said it had yet to respond to a letter from U.S. Vice President Vance and maintained that the United States must meet seven conditions. Trump plans to strike Iran after the midterm elections, while U.S. military aircraft are being redeployed to relevant positions.
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The U.S. core PCE price index rose 3.1% year over year in September, in line with expectations of 3.10% and up from 3.00% previously. The reading edged higher from the prior month, matching market expectations.
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U.S. real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the preliminary third-quarter estimate, accelerating sharply from 2.2% in the previous quarter and exceeding market expectations of 3.2%.
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Initial U.S. jobless claims for the week ending October 24 came in at 194,000, below expectations of 199,000. The previous reading was revised from 194,000 to 195,000.
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The European Central Bank left its deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate unchanged at 2.50%, 2.65%, and 2.90%, respectively, in line with market expectations.
Industry Events
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South Korea’s ruling party will meet with the country’s five major crypto exchanges on Friday to discuss whether to delay the crypto taxation policy.
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The London Metal Exchange is exploring the tokenization of metal inventories in Hong Kong warehouses for use as collateral in lending and financing.
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Polymarket launched five-minute crypto price-direction prediction markets on its U.S. platform.
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Polymarket and other prediction markets face tighter regulation in Australia. ASIC confirmed that it has not received any operating applications.
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Galaxy Digital filed an application with the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish a national trust bank.
Outlook for the Week Ahead
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October 31: FLOCK token unlock, representing 40.97% of circulating supply, worth approximately $18.4 million.
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November 1: OPEC+ meeting; SUI token unlock, representing 0.32% of circulating supply, worth approximately $12 million; EIGEN token unlock, representing 3.93% of circulating supply, worth approximately $8.4947 million.
