Crude oil weakened, pressuring risky assets, and BTC fell below the crucial 80K mark
🔍 Key Insights
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📊 Market Analysis
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Since last Friday, the risk of renewed hostilities between the US and Iran has surged, with higher crude oil prices exacerbating inflation concerns, weighing on the performance of US stocks and bonds. For the first time this week, all three major stock indices ended lower. However, the chip index rebounded slightly, with SK Hynix's US stock closing up over 4%, while Western Digital, despite excellent performance, still fell 3%. Funding concerns severely impacted AI trading, with CoreWeave falling over 10% and Meta dropping more than 9% for the week. Apple's stock hit a new high during trading, briefly surpassing NVIDIA's market capitalization to reach the top position, before turning downwards. BTC weakened simultaneously and fell below $80,000 again, with altcoins generally declining. Over the weekend, BTC made a step-like decline and broke through the $80,000 mark with increased volume, quickly reaching near $79,200; bulls attempted to rebound, but were blocked again at the highest point near $80,900–$81,000. The near-term defense line is focused on $79,600–$80,000. If it falls below $80,000 and drops below $79,200, it may further decline to $78,000–$78,600 in the short term.
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BTC: $80,151.4 (-0.91%); ETH: $2,329.88 (-1.23%); NASDAQ: 25955.34 (-0.21%); S&P 500: 7,623.68 (-0.52%); Fear & Greed Index: 50 (previous value 50) (Data as of: 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC)
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🧠 Market Insights
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Bitcoin is currently experiencing a phase of significantly reduced volatility. Over the past 30 days, the spread between the highest and lowest prices has narrowed from 13% to 6%, with prices remaining within a range of $80,000 to $86,000 for nearly two consecutive weeks. This pattern of low volatility convergence typically indicates that the market is awaiting a directional catalyst. In terms of capital flows, the cumulative inflow of BTC from retail investors into leading exchanges over the past 30 days has nearly doubled from $5.5 billion to $10.75 billion, hitting a six-month high. Meanwhile, whale inflows have decreased from $5.9 billion at the end of August to $3.8 billion during the same period.
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For the market, BTC's rebound near the SMA 365 and the contraction of volatility have made the $80,000 mark the core anchor point in the bull-bear game. Although the surge in retail inflows provides short-term support, if its essence is to reduce positions during the rebound, the selling pressure above will gradually emerge when prices rebound. This week's dense macroeconomic events will be the key variables to break the low volatility deadlock: the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, as well as the central banks of New Zealand and Canada will successively announce interest rate decisions, and Warsh, Lagarde, and Ueda will hold press conferences; the United States will announce the September core PCE, preliminary GDP for the third quarter, and initial jobless claims. If the Federal Reserve releases a clear signal and technology giants' financial reports verify the logic of AI returns, the market is expected to regain direction; on the other hand, if the PCE data exceeds expectations or the financial reports fall short of expectations, the support at $80,000 will face a more severe test.
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🔥Alpha project performance
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ENA: Previously, Arthur Hayes transferred and sold 14 million ENA, triggering a decline and fluctuation in the token price. After overshooting, it rebounded, rising nearly 5% intraday.
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CAP: Market long-short data showed that the short position in the token had once approached 78%. Driven by short squeeze, the token rapidly surged from $0.06 to $0.11, marking an intraday increase of over 41%.
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PYTH: Due to the recent fundamental reassessment triggered by the growth of revenue and usage, coupled with the inclusion of the US Treasury bond index in the Pyth Pro service by Pyth Network, the token has surged by over 4% intraday.
Macroeconomics
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Situation in the Middle East: The Iranian President called for both sides to try to reach an agreement here, while Trump indicated that he might strike Iran again, or they might reach an agreement. Qatar's mediators went to Tehran to coordinate and promote the cooling down of the regional situation. The Houthi rebels and Saudi Arabia continued to attack each other, and the United States updated its travel warnings for multiple countries in the Middle East.
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The US government announced an exemption of 50% of the tariffs on some Canadian imports, which were imposed after the US-Canada negotiations broke down at the end of August.
Industry events
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The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced the inspection priorities for fiscal year 2027, focusing on the risks associated with tokenization, cybersecurity, and advanced AI technology
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The Bank of Korea will require VASP to report the month-end positions of cross-border cryptocurrency users on December 2nd; Meanwhile, it plans to amend the Foreign Exchange Transaction Act within the year to strengthen the supervision of stablecoin payments
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South Korea has postponed the implementation of the crypto-asset income tax, which was originally scheduled for January 1, 2027, for the third time
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The Central Bank of Malaysia and the Bank of Thailand have joined the Singapore Monetary Authority's BLOOM cross-border digital currency initiative, focusing on cross-border settlement, interoperability, and programmable compliance
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The UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) intends to bring under its supervision cryptocurrency applications that select trading routes based on factors such as price and liquidity
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The regulation prohibiting crypto ATMs in Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA, has officially taken effect, with a daily fine of $500 for violators
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Kalshi plans to launch futures contracts linked to the US CPI in December
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HSBC launches Hong Kong dollar stablecoin RedCoin, initially covering 3.3 million PayMe users
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The Ethereum Foundation has postponed the Glamsterdam upgrade for the Hoodi testnet, with the specific date to be determined
Outlook for this week
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October 26: Cadence announces its financial report.
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October 28: Bank of Canada policy interest rate; Robinhood, SK Hynix, and Seagate Technology announce financial reports; XPL unlocks 6.56% of the circulation, worth approximately $23.4185 million
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October 29: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision; Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome H. Powell holds a press conference on monetary policy; the United States releases September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data and preliminary GDP for the third quarter; initial weekly jobless claims data for the week of October 24 in the United States (in thousands); the European Central Bank announces its interest rate decision; Google, Microsoft, Strategy, and Samsung Electronics release their financial reports; Faraday Future (FF) unlocks 6.62% of its circulation, worth approximately $20.7 million.
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October 30: The Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision; the Governor of the Bank of Japan holds a press conference on monetary policy; Amazon, Coinbase, Intel, and SanDisk announce their financial reports; CARDS unlocks 9.6% of the circulation, worth approximately $18.4 million.
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October 31: FLOCK's unlocked circulation accounted for 40.97%, with a value of approximately $18.4 million.
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November 1: OPEC+ meeting; SUI unlocks a circulation share of 0.32%, valued at approximately $12 million; EIGEN unlocks a circulation share of 3.93%, valued at approximately $8.4947 million.
