AI Slowdown Weighs on US Equities, While BTC Shows Resilience and Tests the $82.5K–$83K Resistance Zone
🔍 Key Insights
-
📊 Market Overview
-
US technology stocks faced significant selling pressure last week, with the Nasdaq falling more than 4% for the week as enthusiasm for AI-related investments cooled. Stronger-than-expected inflation data, combined with financing and debt risks among AI companies, prompted investors to reassess the growth prospects of highly valued technology stocks. The semiconductor index fell for eight consecutive trading sessions, marking its longest losing streak since the 2008 global financial crisis. AI-related stocks came under broad pressure, with SanDisk, Dell, and CoreWeave falling nearly 20%, more than 20%, and 25%, respectively, over the week.
-
BTC demonstrated some resilience amid macroeconomic uncertainty. Despite the sharp pullback in US technology stocks, BTC briefly tested the $80,750–$81,000 support zone over the weekend before rebounding quickly and reclaiming $81,300–$81,500 on increased volume. This suggests that the area has shifted from previous resistance to a key short-term support zone. Fed Chair Waller's remarks also provided some relief by not further strengthening expectations of an October rate hike. BTC is now testing near-term resistance at $82,500–$83,000. If it holds above $81,300–$81,500 during any pullback, the short-term rebound structure could remain intact. A break below this support zone, however, would raise concerns that the rebound is losing momentum and prices could weaken again.
-
BTC: $82,111.6 (+0.77%); ETH: $2,410.22 (+0.32%); NASDAQ: 26,140.03 (-2.15%); S&P 500: 7,659.44 (-1.09%); Fear & Greed Index: 59 (previously 63). Data as of 2026-10-19 00:00 UTC.
-
🧠 Market Insights
-
BTC has recently lacked a clear catalyst for incremental capital inflows. However, continued corporate treasury purchases and limited selling from medium-term holders are providing a floor, potentially constraining further downside. Over the past two weeks, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $1 billion in net outflows ($228.4 million this week and $681.1 million last week), indicating a marked decline in institutional allocation demand through ETF channels. Meanwhile, short-term supply pressure has increased at the margin. Centralized exchanges (CEXs) recorded net inflows of 8,237 BTC over the past seven days, concentrated on platforms with a higher proportion of retail trading, a pattern more commonly associated with near-term selling pressure than institutional accumulation. In addition, two wallets that had been dormant for more than 12 years transferred 416.69 BTC, worth approximately $33.82 million, to the same address. Although transfers do not necessarily indicate selling, the concentrated movement of long-dormant holdings warrants attention, particularly given the possibility of subsequent transfers to exchanges.
-
However, selling pressure from medium-term holders has eased considerably. According to CryptoQuant, the share of BTC transfers attributable to holders who purchased their coins 6–12 months ago plunged from 40.4% in June to 4.4%, suggesting that this group has almost stopped moving BTC to exchanges. This partially offsets concerns about potential supply from movements involving long-dormant holdings. Corporate activity points in the opposite direction: Strategy and Strive have both signaled further accumulation, while El Salvador continues to hold BTC. These developments indicate that corporate treasuries and some long-term investors remain willing to accumulate.
-
🔥 Alpha Project Performance
-
PAPER: The native token of Papertrade gained momentum after its perpetual contract was listed on Hyperliquid's HIP-3 market, reaching a high of $0.035.
-
XRP: Ripple Prime launched RWA perpetual swaps and integrated with Hyperliquid's traditional asset markets. The announcement helped XRP gain approximately 1%.
-
PEPE: Justin Sun resumed trading PEPE for the first time in two years, receiving 7.2 trillion PEPE worth approximately $28.44 million from a Poloniex multisig address. The news helped drive the token up nearly 4%.
Macroeconomics
-
Middle East tensions: Iran's foreign minister reiterated that the seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remained valid, with the next move depending on the US. A spokesperson for US Central Command said the strait remained open to maritime traffic and that approximately 97% of vessels transiting the waterway had not been hit by Iran. Mutual attacks involving the Houthis and Saudi Arabia continued, while Egypt said it would support Saudi Arabia and hold talks with Iran on the regional situation.
-
Trump waived the 500% tariffs on Russian goods, 100% tariffs on major importers of Russian energy, and sanctions targeting the Russian central bank and others under the Lindsey Graham sanctions bill. The bill itself has not been repealed, and sanctions imposed under other laws remain in effect.
-
Fed Chair Waller said on October 16, during the IMF meetings in Bangkok, that he would not prejudge the outcomes of the two remaining FOMC meetings this year and did not want to signal potential actions in advance. He neither explicitly endorsed nor rejected recent comments from fellow policymakers suggesting there was no urgency to raise rates this month.
Industry News
-
France's National Assembly passed an amendment by a 38–37 vote to tax cryptocurrency-to-stablecoin conversions, with implementation proposed for 2027.
-
The EU and eight countries signed an additional protocol to the Warsaw Convention, bringing virtual assets and virtual asset service providers (VASPs) within its scope. The protocol permits emergency freezes and confiscations and expands the powers of financial intelligence units (FIUs).
-
South Korea will meet with the country's five largest cryptocurrency exchanges on October 20 to discuss virtual asset taxation.
-
Latvia is considering allowing residents to pay taxes in cryptocurrency as early as 2027, alongside reforms to its crypto taxation rules.
-
Starting at the end of this month, Samsung Wallet will allow US Galaxy users to send USDC to more than 60 countries, covering approximately 82 million devices.
-
DTCC's tokenization service will initially support 25 securities, representing approximately $30 trillion in underlying assets.
This Week Ahead
-
October 19: World Bank Global AI and Digital Summit in Seoul.
-
October 20: ZRO tokens equivalent to 6.42% of circulating supply unlock, worth approximately $57.3295 million.
-
October 21: AKE tokens equivalent to 9.35% of circulating supply unlock, worth approximately $64.7295 million.
-
October 22: US initial jobless claims for the week ending October 17; Bank of Korea announces its interest rate decision; Meta, Tesla, and IBM report earnings; 0G tokens equivalent to 3.49% of circulating supply unlock, worth approximately $5.2744 million.
-
October 23: Preliminary US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs for October; Japan releases September CPI data; Western Digital reports earnings; APR tokens equivalent to 52.96% of circulating supply unlock, worth approximately $6.6374 million; SOON tokens equivalent to 5.96% of circulating supply unlock, worth approximately $6.1087 million.
-
October 24: SOSO tokens equivalent to 7.59% of circulating supply unlock, worth approximately $7.8333 million.
-
October 25: XPL tokens equivalent to 5.02% of circulating supply unlock, worth approximately $17.9 million.
