BTC Rebounds Above $80,000 as U.S. Midterm Results Become Clear and Oil Prices Fall
🔍 Key Insights
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📊 Market Overview
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Markets rebounded sharply after a brief decline as the U.S. midterm election results became clear. Democrats won both chambers of Congress, introducing fresh uncertainty over crypto regulation. However, the outcome largely matched market expectations, and easing political uncertainty helped restore risk appetite. On Wednesday, the Dow rose 3.03%, the S&P 500 gained 1.58%, and the Nasdaq advanced 1.44%. Meanwhile, growing expectations of easing U.S.–Iran tensions drove oil prices sharply lower and Treasury yields down, providing further support for risk assets. BTC rebounded from an election-period low of approximately $75,600 to briefly surpass $81,000, while ETH reclaimed $2,400. Crypto liquidations totaled approximately $950 million over 24 hours, including around $560 million in short positions. Fund flows, however, have yet to improve: spot BTC ETFs recorded approximately $116 million in net outflows on November 3, marking a third consecutive trading day of withdrawals. BTC’s downward pressure has eased, but short covering has contributed to the rally, and a sustained recovery will require fresh inflows. Near-term resistance sits around $82,000. A move back below $80,000 would bring support near $78,000 and $76,000 into focus.
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BTC: $80,511.30 (+3.95%); ETH: $2,424.68 (+6.59%); Nasdaq: 25,736.51 (+1.44%); S&P 500: 7,688.87 (+1.58%); Fear & Greed Index: 50 (previous: 34).Data as of November 5, 2026, 00:00 UTC.
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🧠 Market Insights
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Democrats’ victory in both chambers of Congress sets the stage for changes to crypto legislation. The U.S. midterm results are largely confirmed, with Democrats regaining control of the House and Senate, creating greater obstacles to the Trump administration’s legislative agenda over the next two years. For crypto, the CLARITY Act—already stalled in the Senate—faces an even more difficult path. If it fails to pass before the current Congress ends on January 3, 2027, lawmakers may need to reintroduce legislation and renegotiate the regulatory framework in the next Congress. House Democrats have begun discussing a new crypto market structure bill that would expand SEC authority, strengthen consumer protection, and impose additional restrictions on government officials’ involvement in crypto businesses. However, crypto policy does not divide strictly along party lines. According to a Bitwise analyst’s tally, the incoming Senate still includes approximately 51 pro-crypto senators, just one fewer than before the election. Grayscale and BlackRock also believe the outcome will not fundamentally alter long-term trends in stablecoins and institutional investment. U.S. crypto legislation may slow in the near term, while existing stablecoin laws and regulatory guidance remain in effect. The key question is whether the new Congress can build bipartisan agreement on market structure regulation.
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Prediction markets stood out during the U.S. midterms, with gains in trading volume and forecasting accuracy. Polymarket reported that, among 426 settled midterm races, candidates favored by its markets the day before the election won 419, or 98.4%. Seven races produced results contrary to market expectations, while another 78 remained unsettled. Across 10 key races, Polymarket said its markets assigned the eventual winners a 99% probability of victory a median of approximately 31 minutes before CNN, Fox News, and the Associated Press formally called the results. Kalshi recorded approximately $729 million in trading volume on November 3, roughly three times its single-day volume during the 2024 presidential election. Total volume across its midterm election cycle exceeded $2.5 billion. These results suggest prediction markets are expanding beyond event trading to become a source of real-time market expectations. However, the 98.4% win rate measures the performance of favorites in settled races, some of which were relatively predictable. It therefore does not establish how well prediction markets perform in more complex contests. Their forecasting performance in closely contested races, alongside regulatory developments, remains important to watch.
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🔥 Alpha Token Performance
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CLANKER: Mask Network is driving Clanker’s relaunch, appointing a new CEO and planning upgrades to its token launch platform. The new leadership and anticipated product improvements attracted short-term trading interest, with the token rising nearly 35% over 24 hours.
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ZRO: LayerZero and 21X completed an on-chain trading pilot for tokenized U.S. equities, achieving order-matching performance up to 45 times faster than the test benchmark. Progress in institutional RWA trading infrastructure drew market attention, with ZRO gaining nearly 7% over 24 hours.
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CARDS: Continued development of its Solana-based collectible card trading business, alongside news of its inclusion on Coinbase’s listing roadmap, attracted market interest. CARDS rose nearly 8% over 24 hours, accompanied by higher trading volume.
Macroeconomy
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Middle East: Pakistan’s prime minister said recent diplomatic engagement with Iran and other regional countries had made highly positive progress. U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries plans to make ending the Iran war a legislative priority next year. The Houthis claimed attacks on a Saudi airport and other military targets.
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U.S. October ISM Services PMI: 54.5, versus expectations of 54.8 and a previous reading of 54.9.
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U.S. October ADP Employment Change: An increase of 86,000 jobs, versus expectations of 69,000 and a previous increase of 90,000.
Industry Developments
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France’s National Assembly passed an amendment that would require disclosure of self-custodied crypto assets exceeding €100,000.
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Bhutan’s Gelephu financial regulator has been granted central bank powers, including authority to invest in digital assets and cryptocurrencies.
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Hong Kong plans to establish licensing regimes for virtual asset dealing, custody, and advisory services, with an amendment bill to be submitted in 2026.
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Global asset manager Schroders announced plans to bring its emerging-market bond fund to Solana.
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Aave Pro enabled V4 collateral swaps across its Ethereum, Base, and Avalanche markets.
Week Ahead
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November 4: U.S. October ISM Services Index; U.S. October ADP Employment Change; eurozone October CPI; Circle and AMD earnings; MMT unlock equivalent to 294.38% of circulating supply, worth approximately $32.3 million.
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November 5: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending October 31; Bank of England policy rate decision; Bank of Japan’s September monetary policy meeting minutes; Qualcomm and Coherent earnings; ENA unlock equivalent to 0.7% of circulating supply, worth approximately $17.7 million.
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November 6: U.S. October nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate; Lumentum earnings.
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November 8: STABLE unlock equivalent to 4.93% of circulating supply, worth approximately $23.01 million; AVAX unlock equivalent to 0.3% of circulating supply, worth approximately $14.7 million.
